Convective systems and rainfall in East Africa

Abstract

East Africa is particularly vulnerable to weather extremes, with severe weather linked to thousands of deaths per year. Improved forecasts of convective events in this region are urgently needed, from both nowcasting and numerical weather prediction models. Improving these forecasts requires further knowledge of convection in this region. This study aims to improve understanding of convective events in East Africa, based on a six‐year climatology of convective life cycles and the associated precipitation. Convective systems are identified as contiguous areas of cold cloud in geostationary satellite measurements over East Africa. A tracking algorithm is used to trace the evolution of the properties of these systems through time and space. Matching the systems to surface precipitation obtained from satellite microwave observations provides insight into how the life cycles of these systems relate to precipitation at the surface. Over the region as a whole, 59% of the accumulated precipitation can be attributed to the tracked convective systems. The majority (81%) of heavy precipitation events (10 mmhr−1) are attributable to convective systems, while light rainfall events (1 mmhr−1) are not (1.8%). Most of the tracked convective systems have an area less than 400 km2 and last for less than an hour. However, the less frequent larger longer‐lived systems produce the majority of the regional accumulated precipitation. Composite life cycles of the tracked systems show rapid intensification and the heaviest precipitation initially, followed by a steady increase in area and weakening in intensity before the system decays. Finally, the Madden–Julian oscillation, which plays a key role in intraseasonal rainfall variability in the region, is also linked to the amount of rainfall due to convective systems through changes in the frequency and properties of these systems.

Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths

“…Communities in the Lake Victoria basin lack effective weather advisory and warning systems [ 21 ]. However, our stakeholder analysis and other studies in the Lake Victoria region [ 21 , 48 ] indicate that weather warning systems present an opportunity to counter drowning risks in response to escalating climate change-related extreme weather events [ 9 , 13 , 14 ]. Examples from East Africa indicate that the design of these systems requires close collaboration between weather service offices, BMU officials, and community stakeholders [ 21 ].…”

“…Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events [ 8 ], with East Africa particularly vulnerable to thunderstorms [ 9 ]. While little is known about how climate-related increases in storms are already altering the incidence of drowning deaths among fishers, stormy weather conditions are an established drowning risk factors for fishers, with significant reported cases from East Africa [ 2 , 3 , 10 , 11 ].…”