Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions

Usefulness and applicability of infectious disease control measures in air travel: A review

“…Control at the source region is most effective to prevent disease spread [11]. Modeling studies conclude that travel restrictions must be very restrictive to prevent introduction of a disease in a new area, though less drastic restrictions can delay disease spread and provide time for preparation [64,65]. Other modeling studies conclude that travel restrictions only work when there are few cases, and are unlikely to strongly reduce the global rate of infection [66,67].…”

Simulation optimization for allocation of epidemic-control resources

“…Simulation models provide a flexible and powerful platform to model epidemics over time, and are credible bases for policy analysis when calibrated to actual epidemic data (Burke et al, 2006). The literature contains several instances of simulation models applied to the study of different infectious-disease epidemics, and models are still growing in popularity (Longini et al, 2004(Longini et al, , 2007Epstein et al, 2007;Grüne-Yanoff, 2010;Chao et al, 2010). While a simulation model provides a realistic representation of a system's current behavior, it can be also used to study the system's future behavior under potential changes of model parameters.…”

Mitigation of pandemic influenza: review of cost–effectiveness studies

“…Article abstracts were read and evaluated on their appropriateness for the review, and 16 articles were read in total. Of these, 12 articles were judged to adhere to the aforementioned inclusion criteria [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] and four were discarded from this review [26][27][28][29]. With one exception ( [22]), all reviewed articles were published in 2004 or later.…”

“…Only four out of the 12 economic analyses were based on a dynamic transmission model [16,19,20,24]. Sander et al used a stochastic, individual-level micro simulation model to estimate 15 different interventions to mitigate a pandemic in the USA, comparing them with each other and with a non intervention scenario [24].…”