Contributions of climatic variation and human activities to streamflow changes in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Li, Renzhi; Huang, Heqing; Yu, Guoan; Yan, Hong Sen

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.12.06

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Over the past 4 decades, precipitation in the Lancang River has shown downward trend due to climate change (Li et al, 2017), and the annual runoff in the lower reaches of Lancang River has shown downward trend, and the impact of climate change is greater in the upper reaches of Lancang River than in the lower reaches (Li et al, 2021). In the context of global warming, it is necessary to conduct research on the water resources characteristics in the source area of Lancang River.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic evolution of attribution analysis of runoff based on the complementary Budyko equation in the source area of Lancang river

Yang

Wang

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Analyzing runoff variation characteristics and quantifying the impact of different factors on the runoff variation in the source area of Lancang River, are of significance for scientific response to the ecological protection of the region and Lancang River. The Budyko method is adopted to quantitatively calculate the contribution rate of human factors and climate factors to runoff change in the source area of Lancang River. The results show that: 1) the annual runoff at Qamdo hydrological station decreased significantly during 1961–2018. 2) 1966 is the mutation year of runoff at Qamdo hydrological station from 1961 to 2018. 3) At the Qamdo hydrological station, the contribution rates of precipitation P) to the runoff change are 16.92–72.8% before 1990 and -1.91∼-53.61% after 1990, the contribution rates of potential evaporation (ET0) to the runoff changes are 0.14–39.19%. The contribution rates of human factors ω) to the runoff changes are between 26.9% and 114.42%. This study has important theoretical reference and practical significant for maintaining the integrity and sustainable development of the ecosystems of the Lancang River.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic evolution of attribution analysis of runoff based on the complementary Budyko equation in the source area of Lancang river

Yang

Wang

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios

Sun

Huang

Bao

et al. 2022

Water

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This paper looks at regional water security in eastern China in the context of global climate change. The response of runoff to climate change in the Qinhuai River Basin, a typical river in eastern China, was quantitatively investigated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the ensemble projection of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. The results show that the calibrated SWAT model is applicable to the Qinhuai River Basin and can accurately characterize the runoff process at daily and monthly scales with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), correlation coefficients (R), and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) in calibration and validation periods being above 0.75 and relative errors (RE) are ±3.5%. In comparison to the baseline of 1980–2015, the mean annual precipitation in the future period (2025–2060) under the three emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 will probably increase by 5.64%, 2.60%, and 6.68% respectively. Correspondingly, the multiple-year average of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.6–2.1 °C and 1.4–2.0 °C, respectively, in 2025–2060. As a result of climate change, the average annual runoff will increase by 16.24%, 8.84%, and 17.96%, respectively, in the period of 2025–2060 under the three SSPs scenarios. The increase in runoff in the future will provide sufficient water supply to support socioeconomic development. However, increases in both rainfall and runoff also imply an increased risk of flooding due to climate change. Therefore, the impact of climate change on flooding in the Qinhuai River Basin should be fully considered in the planning of flood control and the basin’s development.

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Contributions of climatic variation and human activities to streamflow changes in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Cited by 2 publications

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Dynamic evolution of attribution analysis of runoff based on the complementary Budyko equation in the source area of Lancang river

Dynamic evolution of attribution analysis of runoff based on the complementary Budyko equation in the source area of Lancang river

Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios

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