Contribution of urbanization to warming in China

Sun, Ying; Zhang, Xuebin; Ren, Guoyu; Zwiers, Francis W.; Hu, Ting

doi:10.1038/nclimate2956

Cited by 366 publications

(272 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Record daily maximum temperature broke successively in 2013 and then in 2016 and 2017 at many stations in Eastern China (China Meteorological Administration, 2017. Sun et al, 2016). The warming observed in China can be attributed to human-induced emission of greenhouse gases (Lu et al, 2016;Yin et al, 2017), exacerbated by urbanization (Y.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

Sun

Zhang

2018

Earth's Future

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Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have serious impacts on human health, agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Here we use three simple metrics including the number of heat wave days, the length of heat wave season, and the annual hottest day temperature to characterize future changes in heat wave severity in China, based on large ensemble simulations conducted with the Canadian Earth System Model Version 2 (CanESM2) in the context of emergency preparedness. A heat wave day is defined as a day with daily maximum temperature reaching heat alert level (35°C). We find that global warming is associated with more severe heat waves including more heat wave days, longer heat wave season and higher hottest day temperature, and expansion of regions impacted by heat waves. While the increase in the magnitude of extremes in heat wave metrics with global warming level is close to linear, the increase in the frequency of extremes is much faster. For example, the historically hottest summer in 2013 in Eastern China, which occurs about one in 5 years in the 2013 climate, is projected to become more frequent than one in 2 years under 1.5°C global warming and almost every year would be worse than 2013 under 2°C warming. Additionally, the increase in the frequency of the extreme events is larger for rarer extremes. The frequencies for once-in-5-year, once-in-10-year, and once-in-50-year events increase by 2.5, 3.5, and 5.5 times under 1.5°C global warming, respectively.Plain Language Summary Heat waves have serious impacts on human health, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. Though a few studies have investigated the future changes in heat waves in China, the heat waves defined in those studies are seldom of direct relevance to emergency preparedness. Here we study changes in heat wave days that are defined as daily maximum temperature above 35°C, a threshold for issuing a heat alert according to China's national Standards. We examine three simple metrics including the annual number of heat wave days, the length of heat wave season, and the annual hottest day temperature based on large ensemble simulations of CanESM2. We find that global warming is associated with more severe heat waves including more heat wave days, longer heat wave season, higher hottest day temperature, and expansion of regions impacted by heat waves. The increase in the heat wave metrics with global warming level is close to linear, while the increase in the frequency of extremes in these metrics is much faster. For example, the once-in-5-year event in the current climate, with a magnitude of the historically hottest summer in 2013 in Eastern China, is projected to become more frequent, to become a once-in-2-year event under 1.5°C global warming and every year event under 2°C global warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

Sun

Zhang

2018

Earth's Future

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“…The urban heat island (UHI) induced by urbanization has been verified in many big cities around the world [2]. The magnitude of UHI is particularly enhanced in China, which has experienced a rapid urbanization during the last three decades [3,4]. The UHI effect can have impacts on weather and climate [5], increase the energy usage in comparatively hot regions, and impair nearby water quality [6] and the health of urban residents [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Energy Consumption on the Surface Urban Heat Island in China’s 32 Major Cities

Liao

Wang

et al. 2017

Remote Sensing

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Supported by the rapid economic development in the last few decades, China has become the largest energy consumer in the world. Alongside this, the effect of the anthropogenic heat released from energy consumption is increasingly apparent. We quantified the daytime and nighttime surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) for the 32 major cities in mainland China, using MODIS land surface temperature data from 2008 to 2012, and estimated the energy consumption intensity (ECI) based on the correlation between energy consumption and the sum of nighttime lights. On this basis, the impact of energy consumption on the surface urban heat island in China's 32 major cities was analyzed, by directly examining the relationship between SUHII and the urban-suburban difference in ECI. The results show that energy consumption has a significantly positive correlation with the nighttime SUHII, but no correlation with the daytime SUHII. It indicates that the cities with a larger urban-suburban difference in ECI have a far greater impact on SUHII during the nighttime. Therefore, the statistical analysis of the historical observation data in this study provides evidence for a long-held hypothesis that the anthropogenic heat released from energy consumption is an important contributor to the urban thermal environment.

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“…In the last five decades , the surface air temperature in China has increased by 0.27°C per 10 years, which is higher than the global and northern hemisphere warming rate during the same period (Ding et al 2004;Wang et al 2014;Sun et al 2016). Besides, the annual mean precipitation throughout the country also shows an upward tendency.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

A new mean-extreme vector for the trends of temperature and precipitation over China during 1960–2013

Zhu

Dong

2016

Meteorol Atmos Phys

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A new mean-extreme vector for the trends of temperature and precipitation over China during Abstract A mean-extreme (M-E) vector is defined to combine the changes of climate means and extremes. The direction of the vertical axis represents changes in means, whereas the direction of the horizontal axis represents changes in extremes. Therefore, the M-E vector can clearly reflect both the amplitude and direction of changes in climate means and extremes. Nine types of M-E vectors are defined. They are named as MuEu, MuEd, MuEz, MdEu, MdEd, MdEz, MzEu, MzEd, and MzEz. Here M and E stand for climate means and extremes, respectively, whereas u, d, and z indicate an upward, downward trend and no trend, respectively. Both temperature mean and extremely high temperature days are consistently increased (MuEu) in nearly whole China throughout four seasons. However, the MuEd-type vector dominates in some regions. The MuEd-type vector appears over the Huang Huai river basin in spring, summer and winter. For the M-E vector of temperature mean and extremely low temperature days, the MuEd-type spreads the entire China for all seasons. The M-E vector for precipitation mean and the extreme precipitation days possesses identical trends (MuEu or MdEd) despite of seasons. The MuEu-type dominates in northeastern China and west of 105°E in spring, northwestern and central/southern China in summer, west of 100°E and northeastern China in autumn, and nearly whole China in winter. Precipitation mean and extreme precipitation days are all decreased (MdEd) in the rest of China for all reasons. The trends relationship in means and extremes over China presented herein could provide a scientific foundation to predict change of extremes using change of mean as the predictor.

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Contribution of urbanization to warming in China

Cited by 366 publications

References 22 publications

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

The Impact of Energy Consumption on the Surface Urban Heat Island in China’s 32 Major Cities

A new mean-extreme vector for the trends of temperature and precipitation over China during 1960–2013

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