Contribuições de Modelos Baseados em Agentes (MBA) para gestão de sistemas hídricos urbanos

Abstract

The usual Emergency Plans for urban water resources shortage consider the use of decision support systems based on mathematical models that represent the hydrologic response of the system for different precipitation regimes and land use changes. The resulting water availability in these models has considered the urban water demand as an external variable (input) not sensitive to the level of cooperation of the water consumers in reducing their levels of consumption. This work presents the bases, applications and perspectives of the use of Agent Based Models (ABM) in urban water resources system management. It presents the conceptualization of a ABM applied to the urban water management of Brazlandia, in the Federal District of Brazil. The model uses reactive agents to represent households and their behavior and decisions were designed using the methodology PAGE (Perceptions, Actions, Goals, Environmental). The agents were classified as low, medium and high income. The environment was represented by raining and dry seasons. The conceptual model was implemented and parameterized based on field investigations and interviews in selected urban areas of Brazlandia. The application of the ABM showed some possibilities of urban water management improvements when considering the cooperation and behavior of water users in simulation models.