Contrasting Impacts of Two-Type El Nino over the Western North Pacific during Boreal Autumn

Zhang, Wenjun; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Li, Minglu; Ren, Hong‐Li

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-510

Cited by 133 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…W. concluded that strong El Niño events are associated with summer monsoon flooding over the Yangtze River, which is consistent with our results. The distribution of rainy-season precipitation for developing El Niño is also in agreement with the research by Zhang et al (2011). Northern China had an opposite PARS pattern for developing El Niño Modoki, in comparison to developing CEN (Fig.…”

Section: Precipitation Anomaly During Rainy Season (Pars) Impacted Bysupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Gerlitz et al (2016) argued that ENSO-induced precipitation variability in tropical regions is directly associated with the atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric circulation and monsoon have different influences on two types of ENSO (Feng and Li, 2013;Zhang et al, 2011;Zhou and Chan, 2007). As a consequence, the investigation of atmospheric circulation and monsoon is used to explain different performance of rainy-season precipitation anomalies under various ENSO regimes in this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

Cao

Hao

Yuan

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study investigated the influence of five El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) types on rainy-season precipitation in China: central Pacific warming (CPW), eastern Pacific cooling (EPC), eastern Pacific warming (EPW), conventional ENSO and ENSO Modoki. The multi-scale moving t test was applied to determine the onset and withdrawal of rainy season. Results showed that the precipitation anomaly can reach up to 30 % above average precipitation during decaying CPW and EPW phases. Developing EPW could cause decreasing precipitation over large areas in China with 10-30 % lower than average precipitation in most areas. Conventional El Niño in the developing phase had the largest influence on ENSO-related precipitation among developing ENSO and ENSO Modoki regimes. Decaying ENSO also showed a larger effect on precipitation anomalies, compared to decaying ENSO Modoki. The difference between rainy-season precipitation under various ENSO regimes may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. Stronger monsoon and anti-cyclone are associated with enhanced rainy-season precipitation. The results suggest a certain predictability of rainy-season precipitation related to ENSO regimes.

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Section: Precipitation Anomaly During Rainy Season (Pars) Impacted Bysupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

Cao

Hao

Yuan

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…All of them emphasize the important role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone. The first one mentions the equatorial Rossby wave response to ENSO via the Pacific-East Asia teleconnection (Wang et al, 2000;Zhang et al, 2011;Karori et al, 2013;Feng et al, 2016). The second one is related to an equatorial Kelvin wave response to Indian Ocean warming during El Niño decaying summer, which is named "Indian Ocean capacitor effect" (Xie et al, 2009).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract.The dominant modes of variability of precipitation for the whole of China over the past millennium and the mechanism governing their spatial structure remain unclear. This is mainly due to insufficient high-resolution proxy records of precipitation in western China. Numerous treering chronologies have recently been archived in publicly available databases through PAGES2k activities, and these provide an opportunity to refine precipitation field reconstructions for China. Based on 479 proxy records, including 371 tree-ring width chronologies, a tree-ring isotope chronology, and 107 drought/flood indices, we reconstruct the precipitation field for China for the past half millennium using the optimal information extraction method. A total of 3631 of 4189 grid points in the reconstruction field passed the cross-validation process, accounting for 86.68 % of the total number of grid points. The first leading mode of variability of the reconstruction shows coherent variations over most of China. The second mode is a north-south dipole in eastern China characterized by variations of the same sign in western China and northern China (except for Xinjiang province). It is likely controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The third mode is a "sandwich" triple mode in eastern China including variations of the same sign in western China and central China. The last two modes are reproduced by most of the six coupled climate models' last millennium simulations performed in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). In particular, the link of the second mode with ENSO is confirmed by the models. However, there is a mismatch between models and proxy reconstructions in the time development of different modes. This mismatch suggests the important role of internal variability in the reconstructed precipitation mode variations of the past 500 years.

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“…Many previous studies revealed that the CP type of El Niño has significantly different global climate impacts from the EP El Niño through tropical-extratropical teleconnections (e.g., Weng et al 2007Weng et al , 2009; Kim et al 2009;Feng et al 2010;Feng and Li 2011;Zhang et al 2011Zhang et al , 2012Yuan and Yang 2012) as these two types of El Niño are accompanied with distinct tropical atmospheric circulations. La Niña events, the negative phase of ENSO events, are usually less distinguishable in terms of the two types (Kug and Ham 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions

et al. 2018

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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of recent decades have been divided into the two different types based on their spatial patterns, the Eastern Pacific (EP) type and Central Pacific (CP) type. Their most significant difference is the distinguished zonal center locations of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. In this study, based on six operational climate models, we evaluate predictability of the two types of ENSO events in winter to examine whether dynamical predictions can distinguish between the two spatial patterns at lead time of 1 month and tell us more than simply whether an event is on the way. We show that winter EP and CP El Niño and La Niña events can only be distinguished in a minority of these models at 1-month lead, and the EP type tends to has a more realistic zonal positions of SST pattern centers than the CP type. Compared to the SST patterns, the differences between the two types are less apparent in precipitation especially for the two La Niña types in the models. Examinations of the extratropical teleconnections to the two ENSO types show that some of the models can reproduce the differences between EP and CP teleconnections. Evaluations of model predictions show that the EP El Niño event has the same level hit rate with the CP El Niño and the CP La Niña event has much higher hit rate than the EP La Niña. While the multi-model ensemble increases Niño index prediction skill, it does not help to improve forecast skill of center longitude index of the SST patterns and distinguish the two types of ENSO events. Although ENSO skill is very high at this lead time, the rapid loss of the initialized information on the different ENSO types in most of the models severely limits the predictability of the two types of winter ENSO events and more research is needed to improve the performance of climate models in forecasting the two ENSO types.

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Contrasting Impacts of Two-Type El Nino over the Western North Pacific during Boreal Autumn

Cited by 133 publications

References 24 publications

Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions

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