Contrasting Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages across Multiple Rounds of Pandemic Waves in West Bengal, the Gateway of East and North-East States of India

Singh, Animesh; Laskar, Rezwanuzzaman; Banerjee, Anindita; Mondal, Rajiv Kumar; Gupta, Bishal; Deb, Sonia; Dutta, Shreelekha; Patra, Subrata; Ghosh, Tirthankar; Sarkar, Susobhan; Ghosh, Subhashis; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi; Roy, Debojyoti; Chakraborty, Ankita; Chowdhury, Meghna; Mahaptra, Surajit; Paul, Antara; Mazumder, Anup; Chowdhury, Aparna; Chatterjee, Shiv Sekhar; Sarkar, Aniruddha; Ray, Raja; Pal, Krishan; Jana, Anirban; Barik, Goutam; Ganguly, Shirshendu; Chatterjee, Mitali; Majhi, Dipankar; Bandopadhyay, Bhaswati; Maitra, Arindam; Biswas, Nidhan K.

doi:10.1128/spectrum.00914-22

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 42 publications

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“…Soon after its emergence, India started to experience a rapid surge in cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early March to July, 2021, garnering global attention [2]. Genomic investigations indicated that the Delta variant nearly completely replaced previously circulating variants, including B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.617.1 (Kappa), and others [3][4][5]. Even globally, the Delta variant had become dominant by mid-2021 [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing the COVID-19 incidence in India using airport screening data in Japan

Liu,

Anzai,

Nishiura

2024

BMC Infect Dis

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Background A major epidemic of COVID-19 caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) occurred in India from March to July 2021, resulting in 19 million documented cases. Given the limited healthcare and testing capacities, the actual number of infections is likely to have been greater than reported, and several modelling studies and excess mortality research indicate that this epidemic involved substantial morbidity and mortality. Methods To estimate the incidence during this epidemic, we used border entry screening data in Japan to estimate the daily incidence and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 infection in India. Analysing the results of mandatory testing among non-Japanese passengers entering Japan from India, we calculated the prevalence and then backcalculated the incidence in India from February 28 to July 3, 2021. Results The estimated number of infections ranged from 448 to 576 million people, indicating that 31.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26.1, 37.7) – 40.9% (95% CI: 33.5, 48.4) of the population in India had experienced COVID-19 infection from February 28 to July 3, 2021. In addition to obtaining cumulative incidence that was consistent with published estimates, we showed that the actual incidence of COVID-19 infection during the 2021 epidemic in India was approximately 30 times greater than that based on documented cases, giving a crude infection fatality risk of 0.47%. Adjusting for test-negative certificate before departure, the quality control of which was partly questionable, the cumulative incidence can potentially be up to 2.3–2.6 times greater than abovementioned estimates. Conclusions Our estimate of approximately 32–41% cumulative infection risk from February 28 to July 3, 2021 is roughly consistent with other published estimates, and they can potentially be greater, given an exit screening before departure. The present study results suggest the potential utility of border entry screening data to backcalculate the incidence in countries with limited surveillance capacity owing to a major surge in infections.

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