Continuous GPS measurements of postglacial adjustment in Fennoscandia: 2. Modeling results

Abstract

[1] Data collected under the auspices of the BIFROST GPS project yield a geographically dense suite of estimates of present-day, three-dimensional (3-D) crustal deformation rates in Fennoscandia [Johansson et al., 2002]. A preliminary forward analysis of these estimates has indicated that models of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to the final deglaciation event of the current ice age are able to provide an excellent fit to the observed 3-D velocity field. In this study we revisit our previous GIA analysis by considering a more extensive suite of forward calculations and by performing the first formal joint inversion of the BIFROST rate estimates. To establish insight into the physics of the GIA response in the region, we begin by decomposing a forward prediction into the three contributions associated with the ice, ocean, and rotational forcings. From this analysis we demonstrate that recent advances in postglacial sea level theory, in particular the inclusion of rotational effects and improvements in the treatment of the ocean load in the vicinity of an evolving continental margin, involve peak signals that are larger than the observational uncertainties in the BIFROST network. The forward analysis is completed by presenting predictions for a pair of Fennoscandian ice histories and an extensive suite of viscoelastic Earth models. The former indicates that the BIFROST data set provides a powerful discriminant of such histories. The latter yields bounds on the (assumed constant) upper and lower mantle viscosity (n UM , n LM ); specifically, we derive a 95% confidence interval of 5 Â 10 20 n UM 10 21 Pa s and 5 Â 10 21 n LM 5 Â 10 22 Pa s, with some preference for (elastic) lithospheric thickness in excess of 100 km. The main goal of the (Bayesian) inverse analysis is to estimate the radial resolving power of the BIFROST GPS data as a function of depth in the mantle. Assuming a reasonably accurate ice history, we demonstrate that this resolving power varies from $200 km near the base of the upper mantle to $700 km in the top portion of the lower mantle. We conclude that the BIFROST data are able to resolve structure on radial length scale significantly smaller than a single upper mantle layer. However, these data provide little constraint on viscosity in the bottom half of the mantle. Finally, elements of both the forward and inverse analyses indicate that radial and horizontal velocity estimates provide distinct constraints on mantle viscosity.INDEX TERMS: 1208 Geodesy and Gravity: Crustal movements-intraplate (8110); 1236 Geodesy and Gravity: Rheology of the lithosphere and mantle (8160); 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics;

Secular changes in Earth’s shape and surface mass loading derived from combinations of reprocessed global GPS networks

“…Previous studies into these effects include surface mass loading (Clarke et al 2007;van Dam et al , 2001), plate tectonics (Larson et al 1997;Kogan and Steblov 2008) and GIA (e.g. Milne et al 2004). However, there are some doubts in the quality of the TRF used in these early studies.…”

“…Regional GIA models with 1D Earth structure (e.g. Milne et al 2004) may be tuned to represent both lateral and vertical velocities, but full 3D variable Earth structure is necessary for accurate modelling throughout the global domain (Latychev et al 2005). …”

Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway

“…These investigations have shown that it is not yet possible to uniquely constrain Earth's viscosity structure for the Fennoscandian region. Such studies, however, Milne et al (2001Milne et al ( , 2004, namely; lithospheric thickness is varied from 71 to 120 km, upper mantle viscosity from 0.05 9 10 21 to 5 9 10 21 Pas and lower mantle viscosity from 10 21 to 50 9 10 21 Pas.…”

“…In the following we describe each component in order; the model setup is similar to that used in the analysis of Milne et al (2001) and Milne et al (2004).…”

“…Lambeck et al 1998) and/or GNSS observations (e.g. Milne et al 2001Milne et al , 2004 to help constrain Earth model parameters. These investigations have shown that it is not yet possible to uniquely constrain Earth's viscosity structure for the Fennoscandian region.…”