Context Effects in the Measurement of Comparative Optimism in Probability Judgments

Otten, W.; Pligt, J. van der

doi:10.1521/jscp.1996.15.1.80

Cited by 92 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Half of the participants in the absolute judgments condition made self-risk judgments followed by peer-risk judgments, while the rest made peer-risk judgments followed by self-risk judgments. This counterbalancing was done because judgment order has been shown to influence the magnitude of the optimistic bias (Otten & van der Pligt, 1996).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Note, however, that the optimistic bias in personal risk judgments is also observed when people make absolute judgments of their own risk and their average peer's risk (e.g., Klar et al, 1996;Otten & van der Pligt, 1996;Rothman et al, 1996). The STF model does not apply to this situation because people are forced to consider both themselves and their peers explicitly.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

Price

Pentecost

Voth

2002

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

100

115

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People often judge themselves to be at lower risk for various negative life events than are their peers. The two empirical studies presented here show that the magnitude of this optimistic bias can be either negatively or positively related to the perceived frequency of the event, depending on whether people judge their own risk relative to that of an average peer (make comparative risk judgments) or judge their own and an average peer's risk separately (make absolute risk judgments). A new two-process model is presented to account for these results. The model combines a better-thanaverage heuristic with elements of the singular target-focused and singular-distributional models

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Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

Price

Pentecost

Voth

2002

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

100

115

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show abstract

“…Optimistic bias was measured by an adapted Dutch version of the Comparative Risk Judgment Rating Form (Otten and Van der Pligt, 1996). Patients were asked to judge their chances of experiencing 15 situations compared to an average person of the same age and sex, and with the same kind of disease (in case of MS patients and IDDM patients).…”

Section: Optimistic Beliefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Measurement of optimistic bias by the Comparative Risk Judgment Rating Form, adapted from Otten and Van der Pligt (1996) …”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Optimism Sensitive to the Stressors of Chronic Disease? The Impact of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus and Multiple Sclerosis on Optimistic Beliefs

Fournier

Ridder

Bensing

2003

Psychology & Health

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The aim of the present study was to investigate longitudinally the sensitivity of optimistic beliefs (positive outcome expectancies, efficacy expectancies, and optimistic bias) to disease-related stress (measured by disease duration, depressive symptoms, physical symptoms, physical impairment, and life-events) in Type 1 diabetes (n ¼ 90) and multiple sclerosis (n ¼ 90). First, we examined whether chronically ill patients were less optimistic than a healthy control group (n ¼ 60), which showed that patients reported lower levels of optimistic bias but similar levels of the two other optimistic beliefs. Next, we analyzed the stability of the three types of optimistic beliefs across time (one year) for both disease groups, which demonstrated that optimistic bias in MS patients decreased. Finally, the impact of disease-related stressors on optimistic beliefs during a one-year period was determined, showing that all three optimistic beliefs decreased when patients reported depressive symptoms. Together, these findings show that positive outcome expectancies and efficacy expectancies were unaffected by being ill and fairly stable unless patients reported depressive symptoms while optimistic bias appeared to decrease as a result of being ill. Results are discussed in terms of the role of control and depression in optimistic bias.

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“…This aspect is of particular importance, since the capacity of nicotine in producing a physiological addiction is very fast-operating (63). Systematic underestimation of this phenomenon leads to being exposed to a high risk of becoming addicted (32,64), and thus to increasing cigarette consumption over time (e.g., from 5 cigarettes per day to more than 20 cigarettes per day). Only after recurrent failed cessation attempts, cigarette smokers may come to admit that their choice is only in part voluntary or free.…”

Section: Psycho-cognitive Modulators In Smoking Continuance Cessatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

The Smoking Mind: A Psycho-Cognitive Perspective

Masiero

Renzi

Pravettoni

2017

Beiträge Zur Tabakforschung International/Contributions to Tobacco Research

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SUMMARYSmoking behavior involves not only a biological addiction, but also psycho-cognitive components. This runs from smoking initiation, through to maintaining, attempts at quitting, and relapse. This perspective is an important element in studying and intervening in smoking behaviors. The main aim of this narrative review is to explore tobacco cigarette smoking behavior, considering the pivotal role of cognitive mechanisms embedded in decision-making and in risk judgment, with particular attention to the so-called Optimistic Bias (OB). The mechanisms through which this fallacy supports smoking initiation and continuance are explored, considering the transition from young to adult smokers and the case of light and intermittent smokers. Furthermore, additional cognitive mechanisms associated with the OB, which sustain smoking behavior and prevent the efficacy of smoking cessation, are described. Finally, a stimulus for reflection and for discussion about how the impact of the cognitive bias perspective in tobacco cigarette smoking is provided, focusing on how it could support tailored interventions, both in smoking initiation prevention in adolescents and young adults, as well as in smoking cessation in high-risk categories. [Beitr. Tabakforsch. Int. 27 (2017)

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Context Effects in the Measurement of Comparative Optimism in Probability Judgments

Cited by 92 publications

References 34 publications

Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

Is Optimism Sensitive to the Stressors of Chronic Disease? The Impact of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus and Multiple Sclerosis on Optimistic Beliefs

The Smoking Mind: A Psycho-Cognitive Perspective

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