Five key drivers will shape the future of transatlantic relations in the next decade. Generally, the extent of shared liberal culture and European collective action capacity are crucial for cooperation between the EU and US. Additionally, it matters whether policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic agree on a conception of global order, on how to handle future technologies, and on the use of military force. Building on these drivers we develop and discuss four scenarios. The first describes a world of selective cooperation as the EU disintegrates. In the second, the US withdraws from the global stage and Europeans are forced to assume a leadership position. The third depicts negative consequences from populist nationalism, reducing transatlantic cooperation to military action against perceived Islamist threats. In the fourth scenario we focus on future technology that threatens to overwhelm transatlantic regulatory capacity.Keywords: Scenarios, transatlantic relations, European Union, foreign policy, international relations
Thinking about transatlantic relations in 2025The transatlantic relationship has always involved questions about future trends and risks. However, the aftermath of Brexit and the US election in November 2016 has pushed uncertainty to a new level. Political goals and even shared principles appear to be up for renegotiation in the transition period from the Obama to the Trump administration. On the European side, the British vote to leave looms large, populism is on the rise across the board, and many citizens are still suffering from the ongoing economic and financial crises. Where do we go from here?In the United States, the direction of foreign policy seems uncertain now that Donald Trump has won the Presidential elections (Jervis et al. 2017). Scenarios in many forms have been presented to make sense of what could be ahead in US foreign policy -and its meaning for the transatlantic relationship (see, for example, Ischinger 2016). At the time of writing, Trump's effect seems impossible to predict with any degree of confidence; and perhaps this caution is warranted considering that his electoral victory had been deemed next to impossible by geopolitical experts (Bremmer, Kupchan 2016, p. 23). The goal of this article, however, is to look beyond the immediate consequences of a new US administration. We focus here on trends and scenarios for the next decade of transatlantic relations.