Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space

Abstract

Civil wars cluster in space as well as time. In this study, we develop and evaluate empirically alternative explanations for this observed clustering. We consider whether the spatial pattern of intrastate conflict simply stems from a similar distribution of relevant country attributes or whether conflicts indeed constitute a threat to other proximate states. Our results strongly suggest that there is a genuine neighborhood effect of armed conflict, over and beyond what individual country characteristics can account for. We then examine whether the risk of contagion depends on the degree of exposure to proximate conflicts. Contrary to common expectations, this appears not to be the case.Rather, we find that the conflict is more likely when there are ethnic ties to groups in a neighboring conflict and that contagion is primarily a feature of separatist conflicts. This suggests that transnational ethnic linkages constitute a central mechanism of conflict contagion.

Communal Conflict in Indonesia: Contagious or Latent Issues?

“…P r e v i o u s s t u d i e s i d e n t i f i e d t wo mechanisms by which spatial may affect communal confl icts Ward & Gleditsch, 1998;Buhaug & Gleditsch, 2008;Weidman & Ward, 2010). First, contagious effects assume that communal confl icts spread through space much like a disease, which potentially devastating consequences for human development.…”

“…First, contagious effects assume that communal confl icts spread through space much like a disease, which potentially devastating consequences for human development. A large empirical literature documents the fact that communal confl icts cluster in space and time, so that areas close to an already existing confl ict are more likely to become involved in confl icts themselves (Buhaug & Gleditsch, 2008). This literature had led some to conclude that confl icts have a propensity for contagion, in the sense that a communal confl ict in one region may bring about the onset of communal confl ict in a nearby region within a short time period.…”

“…Moreover, many economic shocks known to cause confl icts, like droughts and changes in commodity prices which are also associated with space. In this case, what looks like contagion might simple direct results of such economic shocks that aff ect a wider geographical area and sparked confl icts over a short period of time (Buhaug & Gleditsch, 2008).…”

Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion

“…In the context of civil war contagion, it is important to highlight that spatial clustering in conflict does not necessarily imply contagion (Buhaug and Gleditsch, 2008). Contagion pertains to a causal process in which behavior or characteristics of individual units impacts on the behavior and characteristics of other units.…”

“…Clustering can be seen as a more general, descriptive phenomena that can be caused by contagion, but may also be related to the simple fact that a set of countries have similar individual attributes that are related to certain neighborhoods or regions. For example, factors believed to impact the risk of civil conflict frequently cluster geographically (Gleditsch, 2002a) and therefore might lead to conflict clustering without any conflict contagion (Buhaug and Gleditsch, 2008). …”