This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy in Italy by defining a regular\ud
GDP measure constructed as GDP net of government expenditure and evaded VAT\ud
base.Within aVECframework, two alternative approaches are used in order to identify\ud
fiscal policy shocks: on the one hand, the standard Cholesky identification, and on\ud
the other hand, the “agnostic sign restriction” approach. The results reveal that we\ud
cannot rely upon the estimates of fiscal policy multipliers in countries with a sizeable\ud
unreported production, unless the dynamics of the hidden and regular components\ud
of the GDP are disentangled. Changes in public spending and the tax rate generate a\ud
reallocation from underground to the regular economy which contributes to obscure the\ud
spending and tax effect on totalGDP. In addition, the restrictive policy harms economic growth for the perverse effects that impinge on the regular–irregular dynamics of the\ud
GDP, highlighted by our model. Finally, the interaction between regular and unreported\ud
production demonstrates that the link between the two sectors is very harmful in the\ud
long term, since there is strong evidence that shocks to the unreported production have\ud
long-lasting negative effects for the regular economy