Construction Risk Management of Irrigation Dams

Bozorg‐Haddad, Omid; Orouji, Hossein; Mohammad-Azari, Sahar; Loáiciga, Hugo A.; Mariňo, Miguel A.

doi:10.1061/(asce)ir.1943-4774.0001001

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…However, PERT might underestimate the schedule risk because it ignores important risks at the merge points applied Mathematical Problems in Engineering 3 to the path when multiple paths and merge points exist [6]. Omid et al [7] stated that PERT considers only one critical path, and it does not consider paths close to the critical one. Nearly all schedules for actual projects possess multiple paths.…”

Section: Schedule Method-cpm/pert the Traditional Criticalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Project risk management, a systematic risk assessment method for project implementation, provides a platform for owners and contractors to manage risks and communicate. The scope of actual project risk management includes environment safety and health [4], schedules [5][6][7], and costs [8][9][10]. Project managers must formulate strategies for overcoming or avoiding the occurrence of uncertainties so that projects remain on track.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Hybrid Approach for Project Crashing Optimization Strategy with Risk Consideration: A Case Study for an EPC Project

Ouyang

Chen

2019

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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This study aims to develop and provide a comprehensive evaluation strategy for schedule-related variations and time-cost analysis for an engineering–procurement–construction (EPC) project. Time-cost analysis is an important aspect of project scheduling, particularly in long-term and costly EPC projects. In this study, a hybrid method is proposed for the time-cost optimization strategy evaluation of a project. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to determine contingency plans and realize the effective management of estimated schedule uncertainties. A mathematical integer linear programming optimization model coded using CPLEX is developed to assess appropriate strategies for project execution under time and cost constraints. A set of project evaluation optimization models considering risk and project crash plan and the relationship between crash cost and delay penalty is also developed for assessing project feasibility. The correlation between project risk and crashing strategy has seldom been evaluated simultaneously in previous research. This work fills this research gap by quantifying the feasibility of a project, with combined data on risk, schedule, and cost as evaluation indicators. It allows project managers to consider management issues and strategies before they implement projects. A practical example with numerical applications is presented to illustrate the contribution of the decision-making support mechanism, and several managerial insights are provided.

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Section: Schedule Method-cpm/pert the Traditional Criticalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid Approach for Project Crashing Optimization Strategy with Risk Consideration: A Case Study for an EPC Project

Ouyang

Chen

2019

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…Pada pelaksanaanya, seringkali dijumpai pembangunan bendungan sangat rentan terhadap keterlambatan waktu. The World Commission on Dams (WCD), melalui laporan lengkap penelitian dari sekitar 99 proyek, menyatakan bahwa hanya setengah dari proyek diselesaikan sesuai jadwal dan 30% dari proyek dengan 1-2 tahun penundaan, dan 4 proyek dengan penundaan lebih dari 10 tahun (Bozorg-Haddad et al, 2016). Selain itu, di Australia proyek-proyek bendungan yang dilaksanakan sebelum tahun 2000 (pra-2000) mengalami keterlambatan waktu sebesar 46%.…”

Section: Gambar 2 Visium Kementrian Pupr 2020-2024 Dan 2030unclassified

Analysis of Key Factors for Successful Implementation of the Last Planner System to Improve Time Performance on Dam Projects

Kussumardianadewi,

Husin,

Susianti

2024

MKTS

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Infrastructure development is crucial to the development of a nation’s economy. Based on data from the 2021 World Competitiveness Yearbook, Indonesia's infrastructure is ranked 57th out of 64 countries and one of the assessment criteria is related to water resources. Water resource management in Indonesia is still faced with fundamental challenges, including the limited water storage capacity in Indonesia so alternative water resources development is needed, among which is through the construction of dams. In practice, dam projects are very vulnerable to time delays. One of the solutions to this problem is the application of the last planner system method. The implementation of the last planner system can help create major improvements in project planning, increase workflow and productivity, and reduce project time and site accidents. This research has an update regarding the implementation of the last planner system method on a dam project and analyzing the key success factors using SEM-PLS. According to the study's findings, the key success factors of the implementation of the last planner system method on dam projects are budget plan, work schedule, clarity of scope of work, work plan, planning process, and weekly plan

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“…According to the international standard, risk is derived from uncertainties [56], and for construction diversion, diversion uncertainties mainly come from the environment and the diversion system itself, and the risk event is diversion interruption or failure caused by uncertainties. Under general clear-water conditions, river derived flood uncertainty and diversion system derived discharge uncertainty are the main diversion uncertainties [13,19,21,26,57], while under the sediment-rich diversion environment, the sediment uncertainty should also be considered because sediment impact is evident [15]. Meanwhile, as construction diversion systems generally involve temporary water retaining works of cofferdams and temporary water discharge works of tunnels [14,28], cofferdam overtopping can be seen as the CDR indicator, because when the flood volume exceeds the tunnel discharge volume the water level of the upstream cofferdam reservoir will rise, causing cofferdam overtopping.…”

Section: Construction Diversion Risk Assessment On Sediment-rich Riversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Construction Diversion Risk Assessment for Hydropower Development on Sediment-Rich Rivers

Song

Liu

et al. 2020

Energies

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Hydropower is an important renewable energy, and Construction Diversion Risk (CDR) should be highlighted and assessed during hydropower development. Since sediment-rich rivers are widely existing around the world and have great hydro-energy potential, assessing CDR for hydropower development on sediment-rich rivers in terms of engineering feasibility is of significance. This paper proposes a CDR assessment method for the sediment-rich hydropower development environment. The method is concise and practical, reflects diversion uncertainties and correlation, and mainly adopts the Gumbel–Hougaard Copula and the Monte Carlo Simulation. Through simulating flood evolution and sediment impact during diversion, the method can assess CDR basing on the cofferdam overtopping probability. Case results show that the proposed method can achieve CDR assessment on a sediment-rich river and highlights sediment impact on the diversion risk. Through results discussion, the risk feature of construction diversion on sediment-rich rivers is revealed, that sediment impact causes the dynamic and yearly-risen CDR. Hence, our conclusions are: (1) the proposed method is feasible, effective and has industrial potential, and (2) a diversion scheme on sediment-rich rivers is suggested that adopts the design with high or yearly-heightening cofferdams, based on the advanced CDR assessment to cope with the risk features of sediment-rich diversion environments.

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Construction Risk Management of Irrigation Dams

Cited by 9 publications

References 25 publications

A Hybrid Approach for Project Crashing Optimization Strategy with Risk Consideration: A Case Study for an EPC Project

A Hybrid Approach for Project Crashing Optimization Strategy with Risk Consideration: A Case Study for an EPC Project

Analysis of Key Factors for Successful Implementation of the Last Planner System to Improve Time Performance on Dam Projects

Construction Diversion Risk Assessment for Hydropower Development on Sediment-Rich Rivers

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