Construction and Application of a Nomogram for Predicting Benign and Malignant Parotid Tumors

Abstract

Objective A prediction model of benign and malignant differentiation was established by magnetic resonance signs of parotid gland tumors to provide an important basis for the preoperative diagnosis and treatment of parotid gland tumor patients. Methods The data from 138 patients (modeling group) who were diagnosed based on a pathologic evaluation in the Department of Stomatology of Jilin University from June 2019 to August 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The independent factors influencing benign and malignant differentiation of parotid tumors were selected by logistic regression analysis, and a mathematical prediction model for benign and malignant tumors was established. The data from 35 patients (validation group) who were diagnosed based on pathologic evaluation from September 2021 to February 2022 were collected for verification. Results Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that tumor morphology, tumor boundary, tumor signal, and tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) were independent risk factors for predicting benign and malignant parotid gland tumors (P < 0.05). Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis of the modeling group, a mathematical prediction model was established as follows: Y = the ex/(1 + ex) and X = 0.385 + (1.416 × tumor morphology) + (1.473 × tumor border) + (1.306 × tumor signal) + (2.312 × tumor ADC value). The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.832 (95% confidence interval, 0.75–0.91), the sensitivity was 82.6%, and the specificity was 70.65%. The validity of the model was verified using validation group data, for which the sensitivity was 85.71%, the specificity was 96.4%, and the correct rate was 94.3%. The results showed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.936 (95% confidence interval, 0.83–0.98). Conclusions Combined with tumor morphology, tumor ADC, tumor boundary, and tumor signal, the established prediction model provides an important reference for preoperative diagnosis of benign and malignant parotid gland tumors.