Construction & Evaluation of GloSea5-Based Hydrological Drought Outlook System

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to develop a hydrological drought outlook system using GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system 5) which has recently been used by KMA (Korea Meteorological Association) and to evaluate the forecasting capability. For drought analysis, the bilinear interpolation method was applied to spatially downscale the low-resolution outputs of GloSea5 and PR (Predicted Runoff) was produced for different lead times (i.e., 1-, 2-, 3-month) running LSM (Land Surface Model). The behavior of PR anomaly was similar to that of HR (Historical Runoff) and the estimated values were negative up to lead times of 1-and 2-month. For the evaluation of drought outlook, SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) was selected and PR_SRI estimated using PR. ROC score was 0.83, 0.71, 0.60 for 1-, 2-and 3month lead times, respectively. It also showed the hit rate is high and false alarm rate is low as shorter lead time. The temporal Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 0.82, 0.60, 0.31 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 0.52, 0.86, 1.20 for 1-, 2-, 3-month lead time, respectively. The accuracy of PR_SRI was high up to 1-and 2-month lead time on local regions except the Gyeonggi and Gangwon province. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has high applicability for hydrological drought outlook.

Development of Regression Equation for Drought Occurrence Using Standard Score Method: Focused on Asia

“…강수량과 증발산량을 동시에 고려하여 물리적 가뭄을 평가하는 Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), 가뭄지수 사이의 상관관계 를 분석, SPEI와 SPI를 이용하여 가뭄심도를 비교 분석, SPI와 로그 선형 분석모형을 이용하여 가뭄발생 빈도와 특징을 산정하였다 (Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2005;Moreira et al, 2006;Dogan et al, 2012;Kim et al, 2012;Jain et al, 2015;Lee et al, 2015). 또한, 유출량과 실제 이용 가능한 물 사용량을 Hydrological Drought Index (HDI)로 분석하여 가뭄을 예측하는 방법론을 제시하였다 (Nalbantis and Tsakiris, 2009;Rhee et al, 2010;Son et al, 2015…”