Constraints and military coordination: How ICTs shape the intensity of rebel violence

Abstract

Why and how do information and communication technologies (ICTs) shape the intensity of rebel violence? Recent studies find that ICTs can both increase and decrease such violence. We argue that, during civil wars, this effect depends on the type of ICTs. Mobile phones give rebels better military coordination to organize violence. In contrast, the internet increases the constraints of rebel groups to use violence. On the one hand, the internet increases the visibility of rebel groups forcing them to moderate their levels of violence. On the other hand, the internet gives rebels' opponents better tools to limit the levels of rebel violence. We test these two arguments empirically with panel data of rebel violence in countries experiencing a civil war from 1989 to 2007. Through a series of negative binomial regressions, we find general support for our hypotheses. For the case of the internet, we specifically find that its effects are concentrated in more recent periods when social media became more widespread.¿Por qué y cómo influyen las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) en la intensidad de la violencia de los rebeldes? Estudios recientes han demostrado que las TIC pueden tanto aumentar como disminuir dicha violencia. Nosotros sostenemos que, durante las guerras civiles, este efecto depende del tipo de TIC. Los teléfonos móviles proporcionan a los rebeldes una mejor coordinación militar para organizar la violencia. En cambio, Internet aumenta las limitaciones de los grupos rebeldes para utilizar la violencia. Por un lado, Internet aumenta la visibilidad de los grupos rebeldes y los obliga a moderar sus niveles de violencia. Por otro lado, Internet ofrece a los oponentes de los rebeldes mejores herramientas para limitar sus niveles de violencia. Probamos estos dos argumentos empíricamente con datos de panel de la violencia de rebeldes en países en los que hubo una guerra civil entre 1989 y 2007. Mediante una serie de regresiones binomiales negativas, encontramos un apoyo general a nuestras hipótesis. En el caso de Internet, descubrimos específicamente que sus efectos se concentran en los períodos más recientes cuando el uso de las redes sociales se generalizó.Pourquoi et comment les technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) façonnent-elles l'intensité de la violence KEYWORDS

How rebel groups form in genocide: The Warsaw Ghetto fighters

“…When the Nazi-Germans invaded, about 30% of Warsaw’s population was Jewish (Gutman, 1989: xvi). Jewish Warsaw had a plethora of community organizations dedicated to every social issue imaginable, including politics (Ury, 2012).…”

“…Joseph Greenblatt (1996), a member of the ZZW, recalled, “Every Jewish kid belonged to some kind of a Jewish youth organization […] left or right or center, but they belonged” (video testimony). These organizations became more important to Jewish life in Warsaw as antisemitism in Poland increased (Gutman, 1989: xviii).…”

“…Nazi troops reached Warsaw on September 8, 1939. The Nazis established an information infrastructure to control the movements of every Jew, and Judenrat (Jewish councils) to govern Jewish communities (Gutman, 1989: 14). Jewish community organizations in Warsaw began to transform themselves into aid organizations operating underground.…”

“…In November 1939, the Nazis began to create a Jewish ghetto in Warsaw (Gutman, 1989: 48). On November, 16, 1940, with every known Jew in the city inside, the Warsaw Ghetto was sealed (Gutman, 1989: 61).…”

“…In November 1939, the Nazis began to create a Jewish ghetto in Warsaw (Gutman, 1989: 48). On November, 16, 1940, with every known Jew in the city inside, the Warsaw Ghetto was sealed (Gutman, 1989: 61). When the Warsaw Ghetto was established, “the top echelon of Jewish public and political leaders left Warsaw and German-occupied Poland altogether” (Gutman, 1989: 146).…”