Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Zhu, Shoupeng; Ge, Fei; Fan, Yi; Zhang, Ling; Sielmann, Frank; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhi, Xiefei

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02640-1

Cited by 46 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…The finding of this study is overall consistent with previous studies (e.g., Coffel et al., 2017; Dosio et al., 2018; Mora et al., 2017; Russo et al., 2017; Zhu et al., 2020), and it provides additional information in several aspects via considering more global warming levels. For example, it indicates that the global warming level primarily drives changes in the frequency and duration of heatwaves over Southeast Asia.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

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Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and Their Changes in a Warmer World

et al. 2021

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Zhu et al. (2020) projected that potentially conspicuous temperature extremes primarily concentrate on the densely populated coastal regions of the main islands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and Their Changes in a Warmer World

et al. 2021

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“…T10 is calculated from the 10th percentile of daily temperature variability for the climatological run; i.e., a percentage count of the number of days below the 10th percentile. The advantage for this definition is that it is directly comparable with observational series, which eliminates the structural model uncertainties to a great extent (e.g., Sillmann et al, 2013;King et al, 2017;Zhu et al, 2020). The simulated T10 based on climatological run is ∼10% averaged in North America (20°N-80°N, 170-50°W), being similar with the observational results based on extreme dataset HadEX2 (Donat et al, 2013;Dunn et al, 2020).…”

Section: Methods and Modelssupporting

confidence: 69%

The North American Spring Coldness Response to the Persistent Weak Stratospheric Vortex Induced by Extreme El Niño Events

Zhou

Chen

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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The stratospheric pathway is a major driver of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on mid-latitude tropospheric circulation and winter weather. The weak vortex induced by El Niño conditions has been shown to increase the risk of cold spells, especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. This study involved idealized experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to examine how the weak winter vortex induced by extreme El Niño events is linked to North American coldness in spring. Contrary to the expected mid-latitude cooling associated with a weak vortex, extreme El Niño events do not lead to North American cooling overall, with daily cold extremes actually decreasing, especially in Canada. The expected cooling is absent in most of North America because of the advection of warmer air masses guided by an enhanced ridge over Canada and a trough over the Aleutian Peninsula. This pattern persists in spring as a result of the trapping of stationary waves from the polar stratosphere and troposphere, implying that the stratospheric influence on North America is sensitive to regional downward wave activities.

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“…It may not adequately account for the real warming rates considering the carbon feedback processes (Schaefer et al 2014;Lenton et al 2019). In the context of the strengthening global warming (IPCC 2018;Forster et al 2020;Zhu et al 2020a), such a "worst-case" scenario of RCP 8.5 is applied to estimate the extreme outcomes and potential threats of the worst-case emission on the future climate change, although it might happen in an imagined world. Results of our experiment are in line with those from the stateof-the-art models in the short-and long-term future climate projections (Shiru et al 2020;Ullah et al 2020), which not only indicates the skillful simulation of regional climate in the ROM model but also reveals the potential forcing impacts on the local temperature variation and highlights the importance of restricting the rising global temperature.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal temperature response over the Indochina Peninsula to a worst-case high-emission forcing: a study with the regionally coupled model ROM

Zhu

Sielmann³

et al. 2020

Theor Appl Climatol

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Changes of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario are projected for wet and dry seasons in the short-term (2020-2049) and long-term (2070-2099) future of the twenty-first century. A first analysis on projections of the SAT by the state-of-the-art regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model ROM, including exchanges of momentum, heat, and water fluxes between the atmosphere (Regional Model) and ocean (Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) models, shows the following results: (i) In both seasons, the highest SAT occurs over the southern coastal area while the lowest over the northern mountains. The highest warming magnitudes are located in the northwestern part of the ICP. The regionally averaged SAT over the ICP increases by 2.61°C in the wet season from short-to long-term future, which is slightly faster than that of 2.50°C in the dry season. (ii) During the short-term future, largest SAT trends occur over the southeast and northwest ICP in wet and dry seasons, respectively. On regional average, the wet season is characterized by a significant warming rate of 0.22°C decade −1 , while it is non-significant with 0.11°C decade −1 for the dry season. For the long-term future, the rapid warming is strengthened significantly over whole ICP, with trends of 0.51°C decade −1 and 0.42°C decade −1 in wet and dry seasons, respectively. (iii) In the long-term future, more conspicuous warming is noted, especially in the wet season, due to the increased downward longwave radiation. Higher CO 2 concentrations enhancing the greenhouse effect can be attributed to the water vaporgreenhouse feedback, which, affecting atmospheric humidity and counter radiation, leads to the rising SAT.

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Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Cited by 46 publications

References 75 publications

Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and Their Changes in a Warmer World

Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and Their Changes in a Warmer World

The North American Spring Coldness Response to the Persistent Weak Stratospheric Vortex Induced by Extreme El Niño Events

Seasonal temperature response over the Indochina Peninsula to a worst-case high-emission forcing: a study with the regionally coupled model ROM

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