Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Abstract

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.