Considering Regional Connectivity and Policy Factors in the Simulation of Land Use Change in New Areas: A Case Study of Nansha New District, China

Abstract

Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention; however, current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities, urban clusters, or larger scales. Moreover, there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas. In this context, the present study utilizes a cellular automata (CA) model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou, China. Three scenarios are examined, emphasizing conventional locational factors, policy considerations, and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities. The results reveal several key findings: (1) Between 2015 and 2021, Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes, with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land, water area, and construction land. (2) The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy, indicating that Nansha New District, as an emerging area, is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities. (3) Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030, based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy, suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas, alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area. This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.