Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies

Thayer, Bradley A.

doi:10.1098/rstb.2009.0151

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…1,2 The direct and immediate casualties of war represent the tip of the iceberg compared to their long-term consequences, which are often poorly documented and inadequately reported. [3][4][5][6][7] In recent years there have been uprisings in several Arab states, including Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Syria. In Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen these took the form of mainly civil protests and clashes between civilians and police forces, though in Libya and Syria it escalated into armed combat.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Libyan armed conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement

Daw

El-Bouzedi

Dau

2015

African Journal of Emergency Medicine

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Background: Armed conflicts can negatively affect health services and cause injuries and death. The recent Arab uprising has been associated with considerable damage to infrastructure and loss of human lives. The aim of this study was to determine mortality, injuries and population displacement that occurred during the recent Libyan armed conflict. Methods: A systematic cross-sectional field survey and non-structured search was carried out over fourteen provinces in six Libyan regions, representing the primary sites of the armed conflict between February 2011 and February 2012. Thirty-five percent of the total area of Libya and 62.4% of the Libyan population were involved in the study. The mortality and injury rates were determined and the number of displaced people was calculated during the conflict period. Results: A total of 21,490 (0.5%) persons were killed, 19,700 (0.47%) injured and 435,000 (10.33%) displaced. The overall mortality rate was found to be 5.1 per 1000 per year (95% CI 4.1-7.4) and injury rate was found to be 4.7 per 1000 per year (95% CI 3.9-7.2) but varied by both region and time, reaching peak rates by JulyAugust 2011. Conclusion: The Libyan armed conflict resulted in great human loss and social damage mirrored by high rates of mortality, injury and human displacement. Such parameters peaked as the conflict escalated and differed according to the Libyan regions and provinces involved. National and international efforts should be combined to overcome the consequences of these conflicts. Pre´sentation: Les conflits arme´s peuvent affecter ne´gativement la sante´et provoquer des blessures et des de´ce`s. Le re´cent soule`vement arabe a e´te´associe´a`des dommages conside´rables aux infrastructures et a`la perte de vies humaines. L'objectif de cette e´tude e´tait de de´terminer le taux de mortalite´, de blessures et les de´placements de population pendant le re´cent conflit arme´en Libye. Me´thodes: Une e´tude de terrain transversale et syste´matique et une recherche non structure´e ont e´te´re´alise´es afin de couvrir six re´gions libyennes incluant 14 provinces, qui e´taient les principaux the´aˆtres du conflit arme´entre fe´vrier 2011 et fe´vrier 2012. Cette e´tude concernait trente-cinq pour cent de la surface totale de la Libye et 62,4 % de la population libyenne. Les taux de mortalite´et de blessures et le nombre de personnes de´place´es ont e´te´calcule´s sur la pe´riode du conflit.Re´sultats: Au total, 21,490 (0,5 %) personnes ont e´te´tue´es, 19,700 (0,47 %) personnes ont e´te´blesse´es et 435,000 (10,33 %) personnes ont e´te´de´place´es. Le taux de mortalite´global a e´te´estime´a`5,1 pour 1 000 par an (IC de 95 % ; 4,1 -7,4) et le taux de blessures global a e´te´estime´a`4,7 pour 1 000 par an (IC de 95 % ; 3,9 -7,2) ; ces taux variaient d'une re´gion a`l'autre. Ils ont varie´pe´riodiquement au cours du conflit et ont atteint un sommet en juillet-aouˆt 2011, la situation s'e´tant aggrave´e pour connaıˆtre ensuite un retour au calme vers la fin du conflit. Conclusion: Le conflit arme´li...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Libyan armed conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement

Daw

El-Bouzedi

Dau

2015

African Journal of Emergency Medicine

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“…Population dynamics relating to how, over time, the composition of a population changes in relative proportions or absolute size, are also critical, in particular, population growth and migration. It is essential to consider that a universal population change takes place in broader political, cultural and economic contexts (Thayer 2009). A young age (youth) structure can have a positive or negative impact.…”

Section: Theoretical Linkages Between Conflict Demographic Change Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…UNRWA (2007) explains that, the relationship between population and warfare involves population dynamics and population composition, which, according to Thayer (2009), is comprised of population age, size, gender, and infant mortality. Population dynamics relating to how, over time, the composition of a population changes in relative proportions or absolute size, are also critical, in particular, population growth and migration.…”

Section: Theoretical Linkages Between Conflict Demographic Change Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Armed conflict is therefore more likely to occur in countries in which there is a high population growth; moreover, domestic armed conflict is considered more likely in countries with high population density compared to land availability: the greater the imbalance, the stronger the conducive effect it has on conflict. Population growth causes degradation of local resources, resulting in misery and motivating conflict over scant resources (Thayer 2009). Economic productivity may be restricted by environmental scarcities, fuelling poverty, deprivation and migration.…”

Section: Theoretical Linkages Between Conflict Demographic Change Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reviewing the Interactions between Conflict and Demographic Trends in the Occupied Palestinian Territories: The Case of The Gaza Strip

Elkahlout¹

2018

JSD

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This paper reviews the interactions between conflict and demographic trends in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), and provides an analysis of The Gaza Strip. Palestinian society has experienced momentous demographic transition over the past century, as well as recurrent waves of displacement and outbreaks of conflict and violence over the last decade. The enclave has witnessed demographic changes, with the emergence and rule of Hamas, repeated wars, and, since 2007, the unlawful blockade of The Gaza Strip. The United Nations (UN) has warned that, living conditions in Gaza are deteriorating faster than forecast, and are predicted to become dire by 2020. This paper provides a brief review of theories linking conflict and demography, followed by an introduction to the historical and contemporary context of The Gaza Strip. An in-depth analysis of the impact that conflict has on the demographic structure of Palestinian society in The Gaza Strip, focusing on the factors behind high fertility rates, population growth trends, and the drivers of migration. The analysis offered builds upon interviews with Palestinian experts, and Palestinian asylum-seekers in Greece, Poland, U.K. and Sweden, in addition to data published by the Palestinian Statistics Bureau Centre and research articles focusing on The Gaza Strip. The paper concludes that, the Palestinian reconciliation agreement should take priority over the population and the economy.

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“…If global warming were to reach as high as 4.68C, then it would bring drought, deforestation and desertification on a huge scale to sub-Saharan Africa, where further population increase will be the most rapid. Also, to this threatening mix of changes needs to be added the prospect of more failed states and of civil and interstate conflict (Thayer 2009). …”

Section: Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where next?

Potts

2009

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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This paper provides a personal perspective on the rich discussions at the Bixby Forum. The size, rate of growth and age structure of the human population interact with many other key factors, from environmental change to governance. While the details of future interactions are sometimes difficult to predict, taken together they pose sombre threats to a socially and economically sustainable future for the rich and to any realistic possibility of lifting the world's bottom two billion people out of poverty. Adaptive changes will be needed to cope with an ageing population in countries with low fertility or below, but these are achievable. More worrying, continued rapid population growth in many of the least developed countries could lead to hunger, a failure of education to keep pace with growing numbers, and conflict. The assumption that the demographic transition from high to low birth rates occurs as a result of exogenous social and economic forces is being replaced by a clearer understanding of the many barriers that separate women from the knowledge and technologies they need to manage their childbearing within a human rights framework. The forum ended with a clear consensus that much more emphasis needs to be given to meeting the need for family planning and to investing in education.

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Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies

Cited by 21 publications

References 21 publications

Libyan armed conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement

Libyan armed conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement

Reviewing the Interactions between Conflict and Demographic Trends in the Occupied Palestinian Territories: The Case of The Gaza Strip

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