Consideration set models of electoral choice: Theory, method, and application

Oscarsson, Henrik; Rosema, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2018.08.003

Cited by 27 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…First, while the propensity to vote (PTV) has been used in the context of electoral choice formation(Bochsler & Sciarini, 2010;Oscarsson & Rosema, 2019;Steenbergen et al, 2011;Van der Eijk et al, 2006), I use the PTV to identify parties' potential voters. I use the five variables measuring the probability to vote for theF I G U R E 1 Distribution of the Dependent Variable: Number of Ads (percent)…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hit the right target! The Role of Issue Saliency among a Party's Potential Voters as a Determinant of the Party's Issue Emphasis in Switzerland

Borgeat

2022

Swiss Political Sci Review

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Issues matter in party competition. Therefore, the issue emphasis strategy of parties plays an important role during a campaign. Scholars disagree about the factors that explain strategies. Some argue that parties “ride‐the‐wave” and emphasize issues that are important for the public. Others argue that parties care about the issue priorities of their voters. Between these two theories, I argue that parties care about their potential voters, which means that issue priorities among potential voters have an impact on the issue emphasis of parties. The more important an issue is among this group, the more a party will emphasize this issue. To test this hypothesis, I use the panel survey of the Swiss Election Study Selects and the Année Politique Suisse data on newspaper ads. The findings from a multilevel zero‐inflated negative binomial regression suggest that the issue saliency among the potential voters has a positive impact on the issue emphasis of parties.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hit the right target! The Role of Issue Saliency among a Party's Potential Voters as a Determinant of the Party's Issue Emphasis in Switzerland

Borgeat

2022

Swiss Political Sci Review

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“…2). Some voters may select their preferred candidate first, and their party choice may then be automatic (Oscarsson & Rosema, 2019). The analysis of spoiled votes in the 2014 elections revealed similar effects (Gendźwiłł et al, 2016).…”

Section: Party Primacy Effects For Olpr County Elections (#2)mentioning

confidence: 84%

Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections

Flis

Kamiński

2021

Public Choice

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We study the primacy effects that occur when voters cast their votes because a candidate or party is listed first on a ballot. In the elections that we analyzed, there are three potential types of such effects that might occur when voters vote for (1) the first candidate listed on the ballot in single-member district (SMD) elections (candidate primacy); (2) the first party listed on the ballot in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) elections (party primacy); or (3) the first candidate on a party list in OLPR elections (list primacy). We estimated the party primacy effect (2) and established that there was no interaction between (2) and (3). A party primacy effect is especially difficult to estimate because parties’ positions on ballots are typically fixed in all multi-member districts (MMDs) and it is impossible to separate the first-position “bonus” from a party’s normal electoral performance. A rare natural experiment allowed us to estimate the primacy party bonus between 6.02 and 8.52% of all votes cast for the 2014 Polish local elections. We attribute the large size of such bonus to the great complexity of voting in the OLPR elections, especially the much longer ballots, voting in many simultaneous elections, and ballot design as a booklet rather than a sheet.

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“…Furthermore, cognitive heuristics are connected to consideration sets -a personalized list of types of candidates that seem viable for the voter (Wilson 2008;Eliaz & Spiegler 2011;Oscarsson & Rosema 2019). Information and consideration sets have often been linked, as low-cost information can induce consideration sets (Wilson 2008).…”

Section: Voting Strategies In Information-rich Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is similar to what Lau and Redlawsk (2006) describe as editing or pruning, that is, a process in which voters limit the scope of their search by restricting attention to a specific group of candidates or candidates with a specific trait. The use of heuristics and consideration sets happens simultaneously and when needed (Oscarsson & Rosema 2019). This is the reason why it is best to consider decisions in terms of patterns, affected by the cognitive workings in information accumulation, processing and option consideration, rather than as a stage-by-stage process.…”

Section: Voting Strategies In Information-rich Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Finding the One: Ease of Candidate Choices in High Information Open‐List PR Systems

2021

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Vote choice in an open-list proportional representation (OLPR) electoral system can be considered a complex process. In systems where votes are cast for individual candidates the choice is complicated by the large number of candidates, the two layers of competition involving both individual candidates and parties, and the amount of information required to make an informed choice. Hence, voters are expected to apply strategies to narrow down the pool of candidates from which the actual choice is made, that is, to create a delimited consideration set using cognitive heuristics. The types of strategies that facilitate voters' candidate choice are studied. More specifically, the voters' perceptions of the ease with which they choose their candidate and how this is related to three decision-making patterns are studied: the party-centric, in which the voter looks for party-related and ideological cues; the socio-normative, in which the voter considers their social in-group; and the candidate-related, in which the voter puts emphasis on specific features of the candidates, such as political experience, age and gender. Our study is situated in the Finnish OLPR system, characterized by many candidates, intense intraparty competition and mandatory preferential voting. Using data from the 2019 Finnish National Election Study and ordinal probit selection models, the mechanisms that facilitate the ease of candidate choice are outlined. Our findings suggest that voters feeling close to a political party and knowing the candidate personally or through friends or family perceive their candidate choice as easier.

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Consideration set models of electoral choice: Theory, method, and application

Cited by 27 publications

References 34 publications

Hit the right target! The Role of Issue Saliency among a Party's Potential Voters as a Determinant of the Party's Issue Emphasis in Switzerland

Hit the right target! The Role of Issue Saliency among a Party's Potential Voters as a Determinant of the Party's Issue Emphasis in Switzerland

Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections

Finding the One: Ease of Candidate Choices in High Information Open‐List PR Systems

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