Consideration of Water Uses for Its Sustainable Management, the Case of Issyk-Kul Lake, Kyrgyzstan

Alymkulova, Burul; Abuduwaili, Jilili; Issanova, Gulnura; Nahayo, Lamek

doi:10.3390/w8070298

Cited by 17 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…As reported by Romanovsky et al (2013) [43], the Lake Issyk-Kul level increased after 1997, an increase that took place in the situation of global warming and was caused by the activation of the west air mass transport and the increase of precipitation in autumn. As for the Lake Issyk-Kul basin, Alymkulova and Abuduwaili [16] noted that monthly agricultural water demand rises in October. In our results, similarly, the precipitation in October showed a significant increasing trend.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these upper alpine catchments are significantly more susceptible to the effects of climate variability, resulting in significant changes in the water resource yield in arid regions based on climate change [14]. This connection between the hydrological cycle and climatic factors was more pronounced in endorheic lake basins in the arid regions [15], as these closed systems are especially sensitive toward even small changes [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, regional climate variability and anthropogenic activities also affect the lake's surface runoff. Many researchers have indicated that changes in the surface runoff and the water-cycle components as precipitation are the main drivers of water-level fluctuations in Lake Issyk-Kul [15,16]. Therefore, discussing the rainfall variability of endorheic lake basins within the context of global warming is essential for developing a sustainable application of water resources in the lake basin, and other arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2020

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The analysis of various characteristics and trends of precipitation is an essential task to improve the utilization of water resources. Lake Issyk-Kul basin is an upper alpine catchment, which is more susceptible to the effects of climate variability, and identifying rainfall variations has vital importance for water resource planning and management in the lake basin. The well-known approaches linear regression, Şen’s slope, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall trend tests are applied frequently to try to identify trend variations, especially in rainfall, in most literature around the world. Recently, a newly developed method of Şen-innovative trend analysis (ITA) provides some advantages of visual-graphical illustrations and the identification of trends, which is one of the main focuses in this article. This study obtained the monthly precipitation data (between 1951 and 2012) from three meteorological stations (Balykchy, Cholpon-Ata, and Kyzyl-Suu) surrounding the Lake Issyk-Kul, and investigated the trends of precipitation variability by applying the ITA method. For comparison purposes, the traditional Mann–Kendall trend test also used the same time series. The main results of this study include the following. (1) According to the Mann-Kendall trend test, the precipitation of all months at the Balykchy station showed a positive trend (except in January (Zc = −0.784) and July (Zc = 0.079)). At the Cholpon-Ata and Kyzyl-Suu stations, monthly precipitation (with the same month of multiple years averaged) indicated a decreasing trend in January, June, August, and November. At the monthly scale, significant increasing trends (Zc > Z0.10 = 1.645) were detected in February and October for three stations. (2) The ITA method indicated that the rising trends were seen in 16 out of 36 months at the three stations, while six months showed decreasing patterns for “high” monthly precipitation. According to the “low” monthly precipitations, 14 months had an increasing trend, and four months showed a decreasing trend. Through the application of the ITA method (January, March, and August at Balykchy; December at Cholpon-Ata; and July and December at Kyzyl-Suu), there were some significant increasing trends, but the Mann-Kendall test found no significant trends. The significant trend occupies 19.4% in the Mann-Kendall test and 36.1% in the ITA method, which indicates that the ITA method displays more positive significant trends than Mann–Kendall Zc. (3) Compared with the classical Mann-Kendall trend results, the ITA method has some advantages. This approach allows more detailed interpretations about trend detection, which has benefits for identifying hidden variation trends of precipitation and the graphical illustration of the trend variability of extreme events, such as “high” and “low” values of monthly precipitation. In contrast, these cannot be discovered by applying traditional methods.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2020

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“…Salamat et al [16] studied data from hydro-meteorological stations around the Issyk-Kul and used correlation analyses to determine the fluctuations of the lake water level that are caused by surface runoff, precipitation, and evaporation. Burul et al [44] collected data on water consumption to identify the main water consumers and their likely impact on Lake Issyk-Kul. The results of those two studies are based on linear correlation analyses and thus tend to provide less accurate insights than the results derived from the nonlinear SD approach used here.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modeling of Water Level Variations of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan

Alifujiang

Abuduwaili

et al. 2017

Water

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Lake Issyk-Kul is an important endorheic lake in arid Central Asia. Climate change, anthropogenic water consumption and a complex basin hydrology with interlocked driving forces have led to a high variability of the water balance and an overall trend of decreasing lake water levels. The main objective of this study was to investigate these main driving forces and their interactions with the lake's water level. Hydro-meteorological and socioeconomic data from 1980 to 2012 were used for a dynamic simulation model, based on the system dynamics (SD) method. After the model calibration and validation with historical data, the model provides accurate simulation results of the water level of Lake Issyk-Kul. The main factors impacting the lake's water level were evaluated via sensitivity analysis and water resource scenarios. Results based on the sensitivity analysis indicated that socio-hydrologic factors had different influences on the lake water level change, with the main influence coming from the water inflow dynamic, namely, the increasing and decreasing water withdrawal from lake tributaries. Land use changes, population increase, and water demand decrease were also important factors for the lake water level variations. Results of four scenario analyses demonstrated that changes in the water cycle components as evaporation and precipitation and the variability of river runoff into the lake are essential parameters for the dynamic of the lake water level. In the future, this SD model can help to better manage basins with water availability uncertainties and can guide policymakers to take necessary measures to restore lake basin ecosystems.

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“…Accordingly, climate change and human activities are affecting the lake's surface runoff [63]. Many researchers have pointed out that surface runoff changes are the main driving factor in the water level fluctuations of Lake Issyk-Kul [64][65][66]. Exploring river runoff variability of in this endorheic lake basin is essential for developing sustainable water resources in the study area [67].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal River Runoff by Using Innovative Trend Analysis with Significant Test

Alifujiang

Abuduwaili

2021

Water

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This study investigated the temporal patterns of annual and seasonal river runoff data at 13 hydrological stations in the Lake Issyk-Kul basin, Central Asia. The temporal trends were analyzed using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method with significance testing. The ITA method results were compared with the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test at a 95% confidence level. The comparison results revealed that the ITA method could effectively identify the trends detected by the MK trend test. Specifically, the MK test found that the time series percentage decreased from 46.15% in the north to 25.64% in the south, while the ITA method revealed a similar rate of decrease, from 39.2% to 29.4%. According to the temporal distribution of the MK test, significantly increasing (decreasing) trends were observed in 5 (0), 6 (2), 4 (3), 8 (0), and 8 (1) time series in annual, spring, summer, autumn, and winter river runoff data. At the same time, the ITA method detected significant trends in 7 (1), 9 (3), 6(3), 9 (3), and 8 (2) time series in the study area. As for the ITA method, the “peak” values of 24 time series (26.97%) exhibited increasing patterns, 25 time series (28.09%) displayed increasing patterns for “low” values, and 40 time series (44.94%) showed increasing patterns for “medium” values. According to the “low”, “medium”, and “peak” values, five time series (33.33%), seven time series (46.67%), and three time series (20%) manifested decreasing trends, respectively. These results detailed the patterns of annual and seasonal river runoff data series by evaluating “low”, “medium”, and “peak” values.

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Consideration of Water Uses for Its Sustainable Management, the Case of Issyk-Kul Lake, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract: Abstract:Water is an essential element for life, and development would not be possible without its availability. This study identified the main water consumers and their likely impact on water lake level for the case of Issyk-Kul

Cited by 17 publications

References 36 publications

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

System Dynamics Modeling of Water Level Variations of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan

Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal River Runoff by Using Innovative Trend Analysis with Significant Test

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