Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

Traulsen, Imke; Rave, Gerhard; Teuffert, Jürgen; Krieter, Joachim

doi:10.1016/j.rvsc.2010.12.016

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The likelihood of severe epidemics (here, defined as epidemics with >100 IPs and lasting for >60 days) would also be reduced if the policy is implemented rapidly. While these findings are consistent with other simulation outputs carried out in a German context [8], we further show that the rate at which benefit is lost strongly depends on the location of the incursion as well as the efficacy of the vaccination available and extent of the silent spread (in terms of number of premises infected prior to first detection). The reasons for such effects are unclear but it is most likely related to the initial benefit in implementing vaccination.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Unless otherwise stated, vaccination therefore commences seven days after the disease is first detected. Once vaccination teams are mobilised and actively deployed in the field, ring-vaccination around detected IPs would however be carried out within the recommended 24 hours [8]. …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the vaccine requires 4-5 days for immunity to develop and the vaccine efficacy is related to the antigenic match between the vaccine strain and the circulating strain [4]. These limitations render the effectiveness of vaccination policies very sensitive to the initial conditions of an epidemic [5–8]. Complementing the required control measures with vaccination-to-live has the potential to reduce disease spread by removing the susceptible population, leading to a smaller number of IPs, shorter epidemics, and fewer animals culled.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Complementing the required control measures with vaccination-to-live has the potential to reduce disease spread by removing the susceptible population, leading to a smaller number of IPs, shorter epidemics, and fewer animals culled. However, models have suggested that the benefit of vaccination varies with the specific conditions of the outbreak [7,8]. The reasons for this variation have not been fully characterised and it remains unclear whether real benefit can be obtained when applying vaccination in different incursion scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vaccination against Foot-And-Mouth Disease: Do Initial Conditions Affect Its Benefit?

et al. 2013

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When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vaccination against Foot-And-Mouth Disease: Do Initial Conditions Affect Its Benefit?

et al. 2013

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“…Based on reports of past outbreaks, the roles of various risk factors and events of pathogen introduction have been identified quantitatively or qualitatively. Also, disease models are available to evaluate the output of scenarios, such as vaccination, pre‐emptive culling programs and other control measures in FMD outbreaks (Bates et al., ,b; Tildesley et al., ; Traulsen et al., ). Vaccination strategies during an FMD outbreak were compared to find the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity using outbreak data from the UK (Tildesley et al., ).…”

Section: Practical Applications Of the Developed Fault Treementioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis

Isoda

Kadohira

Sekiguchi

et al. 2013

Transbound Emerg Dis

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An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide.

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Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Dürr

Fasel-Clemenz

Thür³

et al. 2014

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

Cited by 13 publications

References 20 publications

Vaccination against Foot-And-Mouth Disease: Do Initial Conditions Affect Its Benefit?

Vaccination against Foot-And-Mouth Disease: Do Initial Conditions Affect Its Benefit?

Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

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