Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle

Hurk, Bart van den; White, Christopher J.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ward, Philip; Martius, Olivia; Olbert, Indiana; Roscoe, Kathryn; Goulart, Henrique Moreno Dumont; Zscheischler, Jakob

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.106030

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(140 reference statements)

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“…New methodological approaches, such as the use of large ensembles (Burger et al, 2022; Le Grix et al, 2022; Raymond et al, 2022) and extreme event attribution (Zscheischler & Lehner, 2022), have been developed and applied, demonstrating the relevance of compound events for a range of impacted domains. Recent literature shows how compound events pose critical risks for food security and ecosystem services over both land and ocean (Gruber et al, 2021; Yin et al, 2023), make disaster risk management more challenging (Schlumberger et al, 2022; van den Hurk et al, 2023), interfere with adaptation strategies (Simpson et al, 2023), and affect human migration patterns (Thalheimer et al, 2022). Parallel multi-hazard work has been making strides in developing analysis and adaptation tools to better prepare societies for these systemic complexities (De Angeli et al, 2022).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies oncompounding drivers are in the early stages of development but, following on the multi-hazard model, these can improve disaster risk assessment. More specifically, ‘compound event thinking’ improves early warning, emergency response, infrastructure management, long-term planning, and capacity building (van den Hurk et al, 2023). Adaptation pathways, typically designed for univariate hazards, could also be extended to compounding hazards in many cases (Schlumberger et al, 2022).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Bustamante,

Roy,

Ospina

et al. 2023

Glob. Sustain.

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Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross-and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change researchwith input from more than 200 experts.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Bustamante,

Roy,

Ospina

et al. 2023

Glob. Sustain.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Compound floods on the study area over the range of alternative realisations result from a combination of storm surges and precipitation. However, the contribution of each hazard differs substantially among the realisations and scenarios explored, demonstrating the importance of compound thinking in coastal flooding (van den Hurk et al, 2023b). Surge dominated floods concentrate in coastal regions with high water depths, while precipitation dominated floods cover widespread land areas with shallow water depths.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Assessing the risks of high impact events in a changing world requires methods that extend beyond historical observations (Otto et al, 2018;Sutton, 2019;van den Hurk et al, 2023b). Qiu et al (2022) and Koks et al (2023) showed that presenting impact changes in coastal flooding through alternative scenarios of historical storms provides clear and accessible information for decision makers.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in alternative climate-driven event storylines

Goulart,

Benito Lazaro,

van Garderen

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. High impact events like Hurricane Sandy (2012) significantly affect society and decision-making around weather/climate adaptation. Our understanding of the potential effects of such events is limited to their rare historical occurrences. Climate change might alter these events to an extent that current adaptation responses become insufficient. Furthermore, internal climate variability in the current climate might also lead to slightly different events with possible larger societal impacts. Therefore, exploring high impact events under different conditions becomes important for (future) impact assessment. In this study, we create storylines of Sandy to assess compound coastal flooding on critical infrastructure in New York City under different scenarios, including climate change effects (on the storm, and through sea level rise) and internal variability (variations in the storms intensity and location). We find that 1m of sea level rise increases average flood volumes by 4.2 times, while maximised precipitation scenarios (internal variability) lead to a 2.5-fold increase of flood volumes. The maximised precipitation scenarios impact inland critical infrastructure assets with low water levels, while sea level rise impacts fewer coastal assets though with high water levels. The diversity in hazards and impacts demonstrates the importance of building a set of relevant scenarios, including those representing the effects of climate change and internal variability. A modelling framework connecting meteorological conditions to impacts provides relevant and accessible information that can directly be integrated into high impact event assessments.

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“…This is due to the threshold behaviour of many impacts, where local impacts increase minimally beyond a minimum water availability, as shown by tree mortality 45 and the shutdown of hydro and nuclear plants in 2022 when water in rivers crossed critical levels. Furthermore, through spatially compounding effects 10 , simultaneous impacts across multiple countries can put high pressure on emergency response actions 46 of the European civil protection mechanism, calamity funds, insurance schemes, and transnational risk reduction 41,47 . Our results and the widespread impacts of the summer of 2022 highlight the importance of creating a cost-effective 48 pan-European approach to drought risk management 2 to improve drought preparedness.…”

Section: /29mentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct and lagged climate change effects strongly intensified the widespread 2022 European drought

Bevacqua,

Rakovec,

Schumacher

et al. 2024

Preprint

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In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socio-economic consequences. By combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that central and southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, likely representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the last six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhancing evaporation. We identify that 14-41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming that started to dry out the soil before the hydrological year 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged effects of climate change to avoid underestimating associated risks. Qualitatively similar effects were observed in river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long-lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.

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Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle

Cited by 16 publications

References 77 publications

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in alternative climate-driven event storylines

Direct and lagged climate change effects strongly intensified the widespread 2022 European drought

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