Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural–human model

Abstract

Abstract. The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural-human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.

Positive Mathematical Programming to Model Regional or Basin-Wide Implications of Producer Adoption of Practices Emerging from Plot-Based Research

“…However, several studies have been able to address this issue by applying PMP iteratively in combination with separate crop growth and hydrological models. Aistrup et al [21] applied the formulation to Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas in which PMP is used with a plant growth model integrating water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In California, MacEwan et al [22] developed a modular hydroeconomic modeling approach integrating California's C2VSim groundwater-surface water simulation model with the Statewide Agricultural Production (SWAP) economic model.…”

High Plains Aquifer–State of Affairs of Irrigated Agriculture and Role of Irrigation in the Sustainability Paradigm

“…For example, 20 to 25% additional land can be irrigated using center-pivot sprinklers in comparison with gravity-based furrow irrigation [32]. Aistrup et al [14] and Upendram and Peterson [35] discussed the increase of irrigated area in the HPA region resulting from surplus water availability due to water conservation practices, and found that climatic and economic factors (droughts, net returns on irrigated land) mainly govern the expansion.…”

“…Over-drafting is the most crucial issue challenging the sustainability of the HPA [14]. Alley et al [15] described the sustainability of the groundwater resources as a well-planned utilization and development of the aquifer, ensuring the indefinite or long-term availability of water.…”