Connecting urban transportation systems with the spread of infectious diseases: A Trans-SEIR modeling approach

Qian, Xinwu; Ukkusuri, Satish V.

doi:10.1016/j.trb.2021.01.008

Cited by 72 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Transportation system plays a major role in satisfying the demands of mobility within a region. At the same time, it also plays a significant role in transmitting and controlling the spread of epidemic outbreaks ( Qian & Ukkusuri, 2021 ). Hence, it is necessary to consider the epidemic resilience of a transportation system into sustainable mobility models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the Dublin City Council (2020), there was significant reduction in the car, bus, and rail traffic during the periods of maximum restriction where only essential workers were allowed to travel. The public transportation system including buses, trams, and metros which is considered the most sustainable mode of travel in any city became the least preferred mode because of its environment which favours the spread of infectious diseases ( Alemdar et al, 2021 ; Qian & Ukkusuri, 2021 ). It is most likely that people's attitude towards mode choice now and in the near future will be influenced by their experiences of perceived comfort and safety during the pandemic ( de Haas et al, 2020 ; Eisenmann et al, 2021 ; Przybylowski et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A study using the Toda‐Yamamoto causality test concluded that there is a relationship between mobility and pandemic indicators ( Kartal et al, 2021 ). The SEIR model ( Lloyd & May, 1996 ) was further expanded to develop the Trans-SEIR model to account for infections associated with travel contagion in densely populated urban areas ( Qian & Ukkusuri, 2021 ). The Trans-SEIR model accounts for the activity contagion that takes place during daily non-travel related activities such as work, school, entertainment and engagement with family members at home.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the impact of mobility on the incidence of COVID-19 in Dublin City

Manzira

Charly

Caulfield

2022

Sustainable Cities and Society

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Covid-19 has had a major impact on the transport systems around the world. Several transport-related policies were implemented in short period of time to contain the spread of the pandemic. These policies had a major influence on travel behaviour and people's perception towards the safety of different modes of transport, especially public transport, thus affecting several sustainable mobility initiatives. To build a resilient and sustainable transport system and to rebuild trust in public transport, it is important to understand the role of mobility in the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. The present study investigates the relationship between mobility and reported Covid-19 infections using data from Dublin city. Different modes of transport including traffic volume, bus passengers, pedestrians and cyclists were considered in the study during a forty week period. Multiple scenarios involving two-week lag and three-week lag of mobility data and Covid-19 infections were considered in building statistical models. Results showed that, 36.2 % of the reported Covid-19 infections after a two-week lag and 33% of the infections after a three-week lag can be explained using the level of mobility alone. The study further discusses the policy implications and strategies for ensuring a resilient and sustainable transport system.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the impact of mobility on the incidence of COVID-19 in Dublin City

Manzira

Charly

Caulfield

2022

Sustainable Cities and Society

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“…Existing studies have revealed a positive correlation between human mobility and the number of COVID-19 infections ( Jia et al, 2020 , Kraemer et al, 2020 , Xiong et al, 2020 ), and have further suggested that enforced travel restrictions can effectively slow the spread of the pandemic ( Chinazzi et al, 2020 , Kraemer et al, 2020 ). Among various travel modes, urban public transportation is found to play an important role in facilitating the spread of COVID-19 due to its essential mobility functionality in densely populated areas ( Liu et al, 2020 , Qian and Ukkusuri, 2021 ), and public transportation vehicles and stations served as key modes of virus transmission, given their relatively enclosed spaces and high passenger volume ( Sun et al, 2013 , Zhen et al, 2020 ). Therefore, many countries implemented various control measures over public transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic, including regular disinfection, mask enforcement, reduced capacity for social distancing, altered operation schedules, and even complete service shutdowns ( Zhen et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A knowledge graph-based method for epidemic contact tracing in public transportation

Tian¹,

Zhang²,

Qian³

et al. 2022

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

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Contact tracing is an effective measure by which to prevent further infections in public transportation systems. Considering the large number of people infected during the COVID-19 pandemic, digital contact tracing is expected to be quicker and more effective than traditional manual contact tracing, which is slow and labor-intensive. In this study, we introduce a knowledge graph-based framework for fusing multi-source data from public transportation systems to construct contact networks, design algorithms to model epidemic spread, and verify the validity of an effective digital contact tracing method. In particular, we take advantage of the trip chaining model to integrate multi-source public transportation data to construct a knowledge graph. A contact network is then extracted from the constructed knowledge graph, and a breadth-first search algorithm is developed to efficiently trace infected passengers in the contact network. The proposed framework and algorithms are validated by a case study using smart card transaction data from transit systems in Xiamen, China. We show that the knowledge graph provides an efficient framework for contact tracing with the reconstructed contact network, and the average positive tracing rate is over 96%.

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“…In the study, for the mathematical modeling of the disease pandemic phenomena, Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered (SEIR) model is applied to the energy sectors [ [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] ]. Especially, the nuclear energy is one of the major portioned energy sources in the nation's energy industry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact on energy mix incorporated with nuclear energy by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for the post-Corona era in the case of South Korea

Jang

Baek

et al. 2022

Energy Strategy Reviews

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It is analyzed for the energy pattern affected by the social matters of the disease trend where the epidemic behavior is significantly important to present the prospect especially for the epidemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this work, there are three kinds of data for the modeling where the power transactions, power plant type, and pandemic data are considered by the energy mix of South Korea. The COVID-19 based modeling for Electricity and Nuclear Energy vs. Energy shows that the energy trend decreases until 16.50th week and then it is in the peak point at 32.50th week. Otherwise, the nuclear energy trend decreases until 11.50th week and then it is in the peak point at 27.50th week. The nuclear energy trend increases after 44.25th week. So, the nuclear energy has a better prospect in energy markets. Therefore, the characteristics of an energy source can make an important impact on the market.

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Connecting urban transportation systems with the spread of infectious diseases: A Trans-SEIR modeling approach

Cited by 72 publications

References 19 publications

Assessing the impact of mobility on the incidence of COVID-19 in Dublin City

Assessing the impact of mobility on the incidence of COVID-19 in Dublin City

A knowledge graph-based method for epidemic contact tracing in public transportation

Impact on energy mix incorporated with nuclear energy by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for the post-Corona era in the case of South Korea

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