Connected in health: Place-to-place commuting networks and COVID-19 spillovers

Seto, Christopher H; Graif, Corina; Khademi, Aria; Honavar, Vasant; Kelling, Claire

doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102891

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 39 publications

(75 reference statements)

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“…The spillover effect occurs when the impact of policies or factors in one region extends beyond its borders, affecting neighboring regions. To assess the spillover effects, several methods have been developed and used in fields such as crime [ 19 ], air pollution [ 20 ], human mobility [ 21 , 22 ], and infectious diseases [ 23 , 24 ]. With regard to COVID-19, several studies have acknowledged the presence of spillover effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk

Wang,

Han,

Dong

et al. 2023

Int J Health Geogr

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Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in one place can affect neighboring regions by influencing people’s behavior. However, existing epidemic models for NPIs evaluation rarely consider such spatial spillover effects, which may lead to a biased assessment of policy effects. Methods Using the US state-level mobility and policy data from January 6 to August 2, 2020, we develop a quantitative framework that includes both a panel spatial econometric model and an S-SEIR (Spillover-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model to quantify the spatial spillover effects of NPIs on human mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Results The spatial spillover effects of NPIs explain $$61.2\%$$ 61.2 % [$$95\%$$ 95 % credible interval: 52.8-$$84.4\%$$ 84.4 % ] of national cumulative confirmed cases, suggesting that the presence of the spillover effect significantly enhances the NPI influence. Simulations based on the S-SEIR model further show that increasing interventions in only a few states with larger intrastate human mobility intensity significantly reduce the cases nationwide. These region-based interventions also can carry over to interstate lockdowns. Conclusions Our study provides a framework for evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of different intervention strategies conditional on NPI spillovers, and calls for collaboration from different regions.

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