Confronting the invasive species crisis with metamodel analysis: An explicit, two-species demographic assessment of an endangered bird and its brood parasite in Puerto Rico

Miller, Philip S.; Lacy, Robert C.; Medina-Miranda, Roseanne; López-Ortiz, Ricardo; Díaz‐Soltero, Hilda

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.01.029

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…En el sur de Ecuador ya se evidenció a M. bonariensis como una amenaza para la conservación de Atlapetes pallidiceps (Oppel et al 2003(Oppel et al , 2004, y en nuestros resultados tenemos evidencias que otras tres especies de aves con exclusiva distribución en la región andina, ya han sido parasitadas (Zonotrichia capensis, Atlapetes latinuchus, A. leucopterus). También a lo largo de la distribución global de M. bonariensis se han documentado otros casos de afectación a la conservación de las especies parasitadas (Azpiroz 2015, Miller et al 2016.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Dinámica de la distribución y hospederos de <i>Molothrus bonariensis</i> (Passeriformes: Icteridae) en Ecuador

Medrano-Vizcaíno

Bedoya²,

Cadena-Ortiz

2020

Caldasia

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Varias especies alrededor del mundo están ampliando su distribución principalmente por la perturbación antropogénica. En Ecuador, el Vaquero Brilloso, Molothrus bonariensis, se registra cada vez con más frecuencia fuera de su ámbito conocido, por ello, analizamos cronológicamente sus registros evidenciando una expansión altitudinal de 580 m en los últimos 44 años. También ejecutamos modelamientos de máxima entropía que mostraron que las áreas de idoneidad de hábitat para M. bonariensis se incrementarían bajo condiciones de cambio climático. Finalmente, como M. bonariensis es un parásito obligado y generalista de nidos, presentamos información inédita sumando con lo ya publicado 21 especies parasitadas en Ecuador. Por las implicaciones en la conservación de especies vulnerables, es importante continuar documentando la ampliación de ámbito de M. bonariensis y sus especies parasitadas.

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Section: Discussionunclassified

Dinámica de la distribución y hospederos de <i>Molothrus bonariensis</i> (Passeriformes: Icteridae) en Ecuador

Medrano-Vizcaíno

Bedoya²,

Cadena-Ortiz

2020

Caldasia

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“…For eight chosen key parameters, we ran two scenarios with two test values, one higher and one lower than the baseline, keeping the other parameters constant. The parameters were chosen to reflect different aspects of population and disease dynamics, and some were based on parameters explored in previous studies 37 , 41 , 74 : LEs, CCI, mortality after CDV infection (MCI), breeding female proportion (BFP), cubs (0-1 year old) mortality rate (CMR), adult (>3 years old) females mortality rate (FMR), adult (>3 years) male mortality rate (MMR), carrying capacity (K). We evaluated the sensitivity of model output variables Y to a parameter P with the formula: S Y = (( Y 1 − Y 0 )/| Y 0 |)/(( P 1 − P 0 )/| P 0 |) where Y 0 and P 0 correspond to the value of mean model output variable and the parameter tested in the baseline scenario, and Y 1 and P 1 correspond to the values of mean model output variable and the test value for the parameter in the modified scenario.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions of distemper control and habitat expansion to the Amur leopard viability

et al. 2022

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The Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a critically endangered top predator that struggles on the brink of extinction due to threats such as canine distemper virus (CDV), habitat loss, and inbreeding depression. Here we develop a viability analysis metamodel that combines a traditional individual-based demographic model with an epidemiological model to assess the benefits of alternative population management actions in response to multiple distinct threats. Our results showed an extinction risk of 10.3%-99.9% if no management actions were taken over 100 years under different levels of inbreeding depression. Reducing the risk of CDV infection in Amur leopards through the low-coverage vaccination of leopards and the management of sympatric domestic dogs could effectively improve the survival probability of the leopard population, and with habitat expansion added to these management measures, the population expanded further. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur leopard necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort, and controlling multiple threats together may significantly escalate overall viability of a species, especially for small-isolated threatened population. More broadly, our modeling framework could offer critical perspectives and scientific support for conservation planning, as well as specific adaptive management actions for endangered species around the world.

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“…We chose a metamodel approach to link PVAs, so that each PVA informs the other(s) about the dynamic changes in its focal species, and the functional relationships that link species are explicitly modelled. The approach of linking PVAs to explore how environmental changes can cause cascading effects through ecological dependencies of species has been used recently to examine threats due to disease (Shoemaker et al, 2014), landscape conversion to agriculture (Prowse et al, 2013), and invasive species (Miller et al, 2016). Here, we apply this methodology to the disruption of species interdependencies by climate change.…”

Section: Rationale For Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing importance of climate change and other threats to at-risk species in Canada

et al. 2020

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In a previous analysis, six major threats to at-risk species in Canada were quantified: habitat loss, introduced species, over-exploitation, pollution, native species interactions and natural causes (Venter et al. 2006). Because of rapid environmental change in Canada, and an enhanced understanding of the drivers of species endangerment, we updated the 2005 analysis, and tested for changes in threats up until the end of 2018. We also expanded the scope to acknowledge climate change as a seventh major threat to species, given its increasing importance for reshaping biological communities. Using information on the COSEWIC (Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada) website (http://www.cosewic.ca/index.php/en-ca/), we scored the threats for each of 814 species. Habitat loss remained the most important anthropogenic threat to Canada’s at-risk species, affecting 82% of species, followed by over-exploitation (47%), introduced species (46%) and pollution (35%). Climate change was the least important threat, affecting only 13% of species. However, report writers used less certain language when talking about climate change compared to other threats, so when we included cases where climate change was listed as a probable or future cause, climate change was the fourth most important anthropogenic threat, affecting some 38% of species. The prevalence of threat categories was broadly similar to those for the United States and IUCN listed species. The taxa most affected by climate change included lichens (77%), birds (63%), marine mammals (60%) and Arctic species of all taxa (79%), whereas vascular plants (23%), marine fishes (24%), arthropods (27%), and non-Arctic species (35%) were least affected. A paired analysis of the 188 species with two or more reports indicated that any mention of climate change as a threat increased from 12 to 50% in 10 years. Other anthropogenic threats that have increased significantly over time in the paired analysis included introduced species, over-exploitation, and pollution. Our analysis suggests that threats are changing rapidly over time, emphasizing the need to monitor future trends of all threats, including climate change.

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Confronting the invasive species crisis with metamodel analysis: An explicit, two-species demographic assessment of an endangered bird and its brood parasite in Puerto Rico

Cited by 8 publications

References 20 publications

Dinámica de la distribución y hospederos de <i>Molothrus bonariensis</i> (Passeriformes: Icteridae) en Ecuador

Dinámica de la distribución y hospederos de <i>Molothrus bonariensis</i> (Passeriformes: Icteridae) en Ecuador

Contributions of distemper control and habitat expansion to the Amur leopard viability

Increasing importance of climate change and other threats to at-risk species in Canada

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