Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe

Kaniewski, David; Marriner, Nick

doi:10.1057/s41599-020-00661-1

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…Armed conflicts have major effects and grave consequences that are difficult to deal with. Historically, wars disrupted the human-microbe balance, resulting in devastating outbreaks of microbial diseases and high rates of mortality and morbidity all over the world (1). In the beginning of the last century, the spread of Yersinia pestis (the causative agent of plague) was aggravated by fleeing from war zones, which increased the geographical range of the epidemic (2).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Daw

2021

Front. Public Health

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Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Daw

2021

Front. Public Health

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“…Historically, wars have disrupted the human-microbe balance, resulting in devastating outbreaks of microbial diseases worldwide with high morbidity and mortality rates. The most notorious pandemic of all time in the pastthe Plaguewas caused by the spread of Yersinia Pestis aggravated by refugees fleeing war zones (Kaniewski and Marriner, 2020). Hence, it is important to focus also on the mirror view effects of existing conflicts on the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.…”

Section: The Impact Of Conflict On Covid-19 Outbreakmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Interrelationship between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Conflict Behavior: A Survey

Chowdhury

Karmakar

2022

SSRN Journal

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“…It is possible that the cross-species transmissions and evolution of distemper virus was driven primarily by natural mechanisms with no or little human interference. Yet in Europe and elsewhere, the period was also characterised by agricultural failure, famine, disease epidemics, social unrest, war and displacements [5,6,78]-all factors that contributed to human and animal movements that could promote the spread of CDV among domestic and wild animals. More so, the first historical reports of CDV coincide with a period of increased European exploration driven by desires to expand and map national territories at home and abroad.…”

Section: (C) Another Clue To Phocine Distemper Virus Outbreaks In Temperate North Atlantic Seals?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A common denominator of these pathogens is that they originated in wildlife, and that their zoonotic emergence and spread were catalysed by environmental change, globalization and associated deterioration of natural habitats, loss of biodiversity and increased rates of wildlife and domestic animal contact, use and transport [2]. Environmental change and human activities are not recent phenomena, but have affected the abundance and distribution of wildlife for millennia, and also seem to have contributed to the zoonotic emergence and repeated epidemics of older diseases, such as plague, malaria, smallpox and measles [3][4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergence and radiation of distemper viruses in terrestrial and marine mammals

et al. 2021

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Canine distemper virus (CDV) and phocine distemper virus (PDV) are major pathogens to terrestrial and marine mammals. Yet little is known about the timing and geographical origin of distemper viruses and to what extent it was influenced by environmental change and human activities. To address this, we (i) performed the first comprehensive time-calibrated phylogenetic analysis of the two distemper viruses, (ii) mapped distemper antibody and virus detection data from marine mammals collected between 1972 and 2018, and (iii) compiled historical reports on distemper dating back to the eighteenth century. We find that CDV and PDV diverged in the early seventeenth century. Modern CDV strains last shared a common ancestor in the nineteenth century with a marked radiation during the 1930s–1950s. Modern PDV strains are of more recent origin, diverging in the 1970s–1980s. Based on the compiled information on distemper distribution, the diverse host range of CDV and basal phylogenetic placement of terrestrial morbilliviruses, we hypothesize a terrestrial CDV-like ancestor giving rise to PDV in the North Atlantic. Moreover, given the estimated timing of distemper origin and radiation, we hypothesize a prominent role of environmental change such as the Little Ice Age, and human activities like globalization and war in distemper virus evolution.

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Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe

Cited by 10 publications

References 80 publications

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

The Interrelationship between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Conflict Behavior: A Survey

Emergence and radiation of distemper viruses in terrestrial and marine mammals

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