Conflicting messages? The IPCC on conflict and human security

Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Nordås, Ragnhild

doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.08.007

Cited by 63 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Salehyan (2014) was more conciliatory arguing there was a tendency for studies to find systematic weather-conflict linkages, but that it was unclear what this meant [41], with Buhaug (2015) being skeptical towards claiming links between climate anomalies and violent conflict to be robust across studies [42]. The IPCC AR5's chapter ) devoted to security denounced strong statements about the effects of climate change on conflict [2], though Nordås and Gleditsch (2014) note that other chapters reached different conclusions [43]. This lack of consensus represents a quite suitable point of departure for this review, as the newest studies reviewed in previous reviews were mainly published before the period under review here.…”

Section: The Climate-conflict Debate Pre-2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Theisen

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review The aim of this review is to understand the state of the art of research related to climate change and collectively organized violence from a broad political science perspective. Recent Findings An increasing share of quantitative studies find a link between weather anomalies and violence for some forms of violence, but the directions are not always consistent and the mechanisms are not satisfactorily understood. Nonnaturalist scholars note important reservations. Summary Important improvements have been made during the last few years, but much remains to conclude that climate change will increase the risk of violence. An increased focus on the political consequences of adaptation and mitigation is needed.

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Section: The Climate-conflict Debate Pre-2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Theisen

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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“…In AR5, the author team attributed Bmedium evidence^that climate change may increase the risk of armed conflict, based on the Brobust knowledge of the factors that increase the risk of civil wars and medium evidence that some of these factors are sensitive to climate change.^Here, the authors are highlighting the potential for indirect pathways where climate change leads to conflict by influencing its robust correlates, namely, economic performance and state capacity. However, the authors concluded that Bconfident statements about the effects of future changes in climate on armed conflict are not possible given the absence of generally supported theories and evidence about causality [ 12]. However, this careful statement based on the available literature was weakened by statements to the contrary in other chapters [13].…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to Special Issue: Disciplinary Perspectives on Climate Change and Conflict

Gilmore

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review Researchers from five social science disciplines-anthropology, criminology, economics, geography, and political science-review the literature on climate change and conflict, focusing on the contributions since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fifth Assessment Report. Recent Findings These authors find little evidence for direct pathways from climate change to violence, especially for group-level violence and armed conflict. However, there is stronger evidence for indirect effects in agricultural and other vulnerable settings and for exacerbating ongoing violence rather than initiating new violence. The authors also emphasize the importance of governance and institutions, adaptive capacity, and potential cooperative behavior in moderating violence. Summary Looking across disciplines and employing the full range of research synthesis tools can improve the characterization and communication of the evidence. Focusing on interactions of climate mitigation and adaptation policies with conflict as well as opportunities for peace building can provide more actionable research for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report.

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“…This is a significant and growing field of study within the social science community . Much of the research has focused on the more controversial relationship between climate and conflict, but beyond that there is some consensus around the idea that climate change has the potential to progressively impact on human security, through the risk to livelihoods, resources, and communities …”

Section: Social Science Research For Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge problems in climate change and security research

Lewis

Lenton

2015

WIREs Climate Change

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The demand for policy-relevant information on climate change has never been higher, but there remains a gap between the type of information climate projections provide and an understanding of the consequences for human well-being. This review explores the knowledge available to support assessments of climate change and security for a wide range of policy stakeholders. Both the climate science and social science communities undertake valuable research toward understanding climate change and the interaction of environment and security, but address different aspects of the problem. Differences in the types of knowledge produced include analytical methods, language, and scale issues. This makes research conclusions difficult to reconcile and provides a barrier to knowledge sharing. It is largely left to policy and security analysts to bring these two very different types of information together in accessible, policy-relevant assessments. Often this is done by considering the potential implications of existing climate change projections, with little or no input from social scientists on the complexities of the relationship between environment and security. An alternative approach to climate change and security assessments is to consider the problem from a systems perspective. This approach has the potential to offer new insight across disciplines and improve the utility of research outcomes to inform action on climate change and security.

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Conflicting messages? The IPCC on conflict and human security

Cited by 63 publications

References 39 publications

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Introduction to Special Issue: Disciplinary Perspectives on Climate Change and Conflict

Knowledge problems in climate change and security research

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