Conflict as a cause of migration

Abstract

This article provides an empirical analysis of the relation between conflict and migration across a range of countries for which data are available and accounts both for the direct impact of conflict on migration and the indirect impact through its effect on economic opportunity. A model of migration is developed, where conflict affects wages and so migration decisions. The model is operationalized and estimated using data from the UN International Migration Stock and World Development Indicators and the International Country Risk Guide. This allows internal conflict to be measured as a continuous variable and its effect on net migration to be evaluated and the direct and indirect channels identified. A significant effect of conflict on net migration is found for low-income countries and it is shown to be robust to changes in the measurement of conflict and estimation methods.