Confidence, Perception, and Politics in California: The Determinants of Attitudes toward Taxes by Level of Government

Abstract

California faced a tremendous fiscal challenge in the wake of the 2008 recession. With high political hurdles to raising taxes, the state and local governments were forced to appeal directly to voters through ballot initiatives. Debates over these ballot initiatives, however, took place against the backdrop of increasingly acrimonious disagreements about taxation at the federal level. Unfortunately, researchers have little idea about how the dynamics of public opinion on tax issues operate across these various levels of government. This article asks: do the factors that shape attitudes towards taxation in California vary depending on the level of government levying those taxes? Analyzing results from a 2012 poll, this article finds some differences and some commonalities in the determinants of tax attitudes at the federal, state, and local level. More specifically, we find that: (1) attitudes toward taxes are more politicized at the federal level than at the state or local level; (2) confidence in government has a strong effect on tax attitudes but citizens draw clear distinctions between levels of government; (3) perceived self-interest does not influence tax attitudes at any level; and (4) there is a gender gap in attitudes toward taxation at the federal, state, and local levels.2

Straight to the (Revenue) Source: Contextual and Individual-Level Determinants of Attitudes Toward Local Taxes

“…The second group of variables in Table 1 focus on race-related considerations. Confirming the findings from other studies (Beck & Dye, 1982;Beck et al, 1987Beck et al, , 1990Wallsten & Park, 2015) we find that non-whites are typically more willing than white respondents to express anti-tax attitudes. Specifically, respondents of Latino descent are more likely than others to think they pay a lot more than their fair share in local taxes, both black and Latino respondents are more likely than others think it is very important to lower local taxes, and white respondents are the least likely to express anti-tax attitudes.…”

“…Income is positively related to feeling that you are paying more than your fair share in local taxes but negatively related to thinking that it is very important to reduce local taxes. 14 Although the finding for the reduce taxes model is at odds with conventional wisdom, it is in keeping with some findings from the literature (Bartels, 2005;Donahue & Miller, 2016;Wallsten & Park, 2015) and may indicate an "ability to pay" rather than a self-interest effect (Roscoe, 2013).…”

“…For instance, Green, Palmquist, and Schickler (2004) include an indicator for childless adults (kids or no kids) but find no statistically significant difference in tax attitudes in their study of tax limitations in Michigan. Similarly, Beck and Dye (1982) find little support for self-interest explanations in their study of tax attitudes in Florida, and a handful of studies have found an inverse relationship between income and support for cutting taxes (Bartels, 2005;Donahue & Miller, 2016;Wallsten & Park, 2015).…”

Policy Design and the Politics of City Revenue: Evidence from California Municipal Ballot Measures

“…The assumption that the politics of taxation are one-dimensional is at odds with a growing body of evidence that voters may evaluate any given local tax along multiple dimensions simultaneously. Public opinion research shows that taxes vary substantially in their popularity (Campbell 2009;Williamson 2017), and that taxpayers evaluate taxes based on such considerations as how fair they believe them to be (Kidder and Martin 2012), how unpleasant they find the experience of paying (Williamson 2017), and how confident they are that the government will spend the revenue appropriately (Fairbrother 2017;Wallsten and Park 2015). These dimensions, in turn, may be affected by the qualitative design of the policy.…”

The Impacts of Fiscal Subsidies on the Carbon Emissions of Mining Enterprises: Evidence from China

“…Relevant research has demonstrated that green-technology innovation can lower corporate carbon emission levels [ 27 ] and effectively promote carbon-emission responsibilities. Additionally, independent technological innovation can have a remarkable effect on carbon-emission reduction [ 28 ]. Of course, apparent regional differences can be found; independent research and development has impacted carbon-emission reduction in East and West China, but the impact in Central and Northeast China has been insignificant.…”