Confidence, knowledge, and compliance with emergency evacuation

Abstract

Hurricane Katrina vividly showed that policy compliance can be a life-or-death matter in times of natural disasters. Although a substantial number of emergency management studies examined the determinants of evacuation compliance, they largely focused on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Research in policy implementation shows that public confidence in government institutions and knowledge about policies implemented are critical factors for securing compliance from target populations. Building upon this literature, we examine whether confidence and knowledge factors can predict compliance behaviors with policies of disaster response. Our analysis of a nationwide survey indicates that confidence in Federal Emergency Management Agency significantly increases the probability of compliance with evacuation orders. Individuals with better knowledge of local disaster response plans are also more likely to comply with evacuation orders than others. These findings suggest that enhancing the effectiveness of disaster management policy may require a fundamentally different approach with a new focus on institutional capacity and process.

A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines

“…These results indicate the importance of trust, or where the evacuation warning comes from, to the decision-making process. As Kim and Oh (2014) suggest, the integrity of the authorities is important to encourage evacuation compliance. Nevertheless, official warnings should be disseminated through all available sources of media to reach a diverse population with different preferences (Durage et al 2014).…”

“…On the other hand, the more a disaster management organization, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA, has established integrity, the higher the probability of people complying to evacuation message from them (Kim and Oh 2014). Also, when people are knowledgeable on existing disaster plans, the higher is the likelihood of evacuation compliance.…”

“…However, due to the nature of evacuation decision as a social process involving credibility of the warning sources, community and household factors, risk perception, and the government, it is then suggested that these factors should be further investigated. Specific factors such as risk perceptions, social networks, and the numbers of children and pets should be subject to empirical studies (Kim and Oh 2014).…”

Risk communication and risk perception: lessons from the 2011 floods in Brisbane, Australia

“…Typically, local government actors decide whether or not a warning needs to be issued (Mileti and Sorensen, , pp. 2–3) and confidence in the local government tier tends to be greater than that in higher levels of government (Kim and Oh, , p. 115). If certain parameters are met, an alert can be triggered and related information can be communicated.…”

“…Social cues include situations where ‘neighbors are seen evacuating when evacuation warnings are received’ (Mileti and Sorensen, , p. 5–6). As an extension of the environment, the ‘physical characteristics of residences are also important’ (Kim and Oh, , p. 113). This has salience in Brisbane where many houses are ‘high set’ (that is, they are raised some metres above ground level on concrete, steel, or wooden stumps)—many of the houses in flood‐affected areas are high set as a flood mitigation measure.…”