Conditional Probabilities of Hellenic Arc Earthquakes Based on Different Distribution Models

Coban, K.H.; Sayıl, Nilgün

doi:10.1007/s00024-020-02576-z

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Over the years, many statistical distributions such as the Weibull [34], the Lognormal [35,36], the Stretched Exponential [37] and the Gamma distribution [7,38] have been proposed. In this study, we applied the four most popular statistical distributions in the relevant studies (e.g., [39,40]), namely the Weibull, the Gamma, the Lognormal and the Exponential, to each ∆T data set for the 10 sub-areas. The probability density functions (pdf ) of the four candidate distributions are given in Table 1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece

et al. 2022

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Seismic temporal properties constitute a fundamental component in developing probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence in a specific area. Earthquake occurrence is neither periodic nor completely random but often accrues into bursts in both short- and long-term time scales, and involves a complex summation of triggered and independent events (ΔΤ). This behavior underlines the impact of the correlations on many potential applications such as the stochastic point process for the earthquake interevent times. In this respect, we intend firstly to determine the appropriate magnitude thresholds, Mthr, indicating the temporal crossover between correlated and statistically independent earthquakes in each 1 of the 10 distinctive sub-areas of the Aegean region. The second goal is the investigation of the statistical distribution that optimally fits the interevent times' data for earthquakes with M ≥ Mthr after evaluating the Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and Exponential distributions performance. Results concerning the correlations analysis evidenced that the temporal crossover of the earthquake interevent time data ranges from Mthr ≥ 4.7 up to Mthr ≥ 5.1 among the 10 sub-areas. The distribution fitting and comparison reveals that the Gamma distribution outperforms the other three distributions for all the data sets. This finding indicates a burst or clustering behavior in the earthquake interevent times, in which each earthquake occurrence depends upon only the occurrence time of the last one and not from the full seismic history.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece

et al. 2022

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“…The b-value is an important parameter that can be related to the crustal stress conditions and has been used effectively since 1940s to investigate seismicity of a region (e.g., Gutenberg and Richter, 1944;Scholz, 1968;Wiemer and Benoit, 1996;Enescu and Ito, 2002;Sayıl and Osmanşahin ,2008;Roy et al, 2011;Mesimeri et al, 2018;Özer et al, 2018;Çoban and Sayıl, 2019;Chorozoglou and Papadimitriou, 2019;Çoban and Sayıl, 2020;Taroni and Akinci, 2021). The b-value is related with the crustal heterogeneity, earthquake occurrence and volcanic activity of a region.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

THE SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF b-VALUES OF THE AREA BETWEEN BODRUM AND FETHIYE DISTRICTS, THE SOUTH-WESTERN ANATOLIA, TURKEY

AKAR

Akkoyunlu

Bilim

2022

Mühendislik Bilimleri Ve Tasarım Dergisi

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The estimation of the variation of the b-value, which is frequency distribution of a magnitude given in an earthquake data set of any region, is important parameter for interpretation of tectonic mechanism and seismic hazard assessment of that region. There is an inverse correlation between stress and b-value. The magnitudefrequency relationship is described by the well-known the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the recent seismicity of the region between the Bodrum and Fethiye, the south-western Anatolia in Turkey. A total of 27357 earthquake data is taken into account in this study in the period between 2004 to 2020 with magnitude (Ml) larger than 2. The majority of focal depths of earthquakes are concentrated between 0 and 33 km. The b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship was estimated by the maximum likelihood method in this study. The estimated b-values range between 0.5 and 2 in the study region. While the lower b-values (0.5-1) are located at the SE of the study area (mainly the Beydağları unit), higher values (1-2) are trending on the west-east direction along the fault zones. The highest b-values in the study area are possibly related with the brittle lower-mid crust, thermal regime, normal faults and young basins bounded by these faults.

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“…Deprem tehlikesini belirlemek için deterministik ve olasılıksal yöntemler kullanılmaktadır [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. İstatistiksel dağılım modelleri farklı bölgelerdeki deprem tehlikesini belirlemek için olasılıksal yöntemler içeresinde kullanılmıştır [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. Deprem tehlike değerlendirme çalışmalarının ilk ve en önemli basamağı, bir depremin olasılığının doğru ve güvenilir olarak belirlenmesidir.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Deprem tehlike değerlendirme çalışmalarının ilk ve en önemli basamağı, bir depremin olasılığının doğru ve güvenilir olarak belirlenmesidir. Ayrıca deprem olasılık hesaplamalarında, birden fazla istatiksel model sonuçlarının karşılaştırılması daha güvenilir ve doğru sonuç verdiği literatürdeki çalışmalarda belirtilmiştir [13][14][15][16][17][21][22][23]. farklı deprem kataloglarıyla kullanılmış ve şartlı olasılık değerleri hesaplanmıştır [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Evaluation of the Conditional Probability of January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) Earthquake

Coban

Sayıl

2020

Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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Bu çalışmada dört farklı istatistiksel dağılım modeli (Weibull, Rayleigh, üstel ve log-normal dağılım modelleri) uygulanarak 24 Ocak 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) depreminin şartlı olasılığı hesaplanmıştır. Bu hesaplamalar için, bölgede 1900 yılı ile 2019 yılları arasında meydana gelmiş M≥4,7 depremlerin tekrarlama periyotları kullanılmıştır. Modeller ile kullanılan veri arasındaki uyum ilişkisi üç farklı test kriteri (Olabilirlik değeri (lnL), Akaike ve Bayesian bilgi kriteri) ile değerlendirilirmiştir. Log-normal model, çalışma verisini en iyi temsil eden model olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre Sivrice (Elazığ) depreminin şartlı olasılık değerleri (t=0 ve te=2 için); Log-normal modele göre %80, üstel modele göre %72, Weibull modele göre %70, Rayleigh modele göre %36 olarak hesaplanmıştır.

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Conditional Probabilities of Hellenic Arc Earthquakes Based on Different Distribution Models

Cited by 12 publications

References 52 publications

Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece

Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece

THE SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF b-VALUES OF THE AREA BETWEEN BODRUM AND FETHIYE DISTRICTS, THE SOUTH-WESTERN ANATOLIA, TURKEY

Evaluation of the Conditional Probability of January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) Earthquake

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