Concurrently examining unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism: Temporal shifts, individual‐difference and event‐specific correlates, and behavioural outcomes

Abstract

Researchers have spent considerable effort examining unrealistic absolute optimism and unrealistic comparative optimism, yet there is a lack of research exploring them concurrently. This longitudinal study repeatedly assessed unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism within a performance context over several months to identify the degree to which they shift as a function of proximity to performance and performance feedback, their associations with global individual difference and event-specific factors, and their link to subsequent behavioural outcomes. Results showed similar shifts in unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism based on proximity to performance and performance feedback. Moreover, increases in both types of unrealistic optimism were associated with better subsequent performance beyond the effect of prior performance. However, several differences were found between the two forms of unrealistic optimism in their associations with global individual difference factors and event-specific factors, highlighting the distinctiveness of the two constructs.

Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members

“…Optimistic biases are particularly resistant to outside influence, for instance when tempted with large incentives for making accurate estimations [ 17 , 18 ]. Nevertheless, researchers have found a series of factors that can moderate the magnitude and the direction of overoptimistic beliefs, such as the characteristics of the events in question [ 15 , 19 – 22 ] and characteristics of the reference target [ 11 , 23 – 30 ]. These moderators are discussed in more detail in the following sections.…”

Anticipating academic performance and feedback: unrealistically optimistic temporal shifts in performance estimates and primary and secondary control strategies

“…The first objective was to assess temporal shifts in academic performance estimates as a function of proximity to each performance event. As in past research (Ruthig et al, 2017a, b;Shepperd et al, 1996), we expected performance estimates prior to each exam to be overestimated compared to actual performance. Also, performance estimates were expected to decline from before the performance event to immediately prior to receiving feedback.…”

“…Unrealistic optimism often involves overestimating one's future performance and occurs across various domains (Shepperd et al, 2013). For example, individuals believe that they will score higher, have faster response times, and earn higher salaries than they actually do (Coehlo, 2010;Ruthig et al, 2017aRuthig et al, , 2017bSweeny et al, 2009). However, with the approach of the performance event and subsequent performance feedback, individuals tend to report reduced performance estimates.…”

“…Second, research shows that while bad news is disappointing, unexpected bad news is even worse (Taylor & Shepperd, 1998). Thus, in an attempt to avoid disappointment with looming performance feedback, students may lower their performance expectations to manage their emotions, essentially "preparing for the worst" (Ruthig, et al, 2017a(Ruthig, et al, , 2017bSweeny & Shepperd, 2010). Third, diminished performance expectations may also result from the loss of opportunity to influence the performance event (Carroll et al, 2006).…”

“…Past research has largely focused on single performance events to examine temporal bracing in performance estimates. More recently, studies have shown that after bracing, performance estimates rebound, reverting to higher, often unrealistically optimistic levels in anticipation of the next future performance event (Massey et al, 2011;Ruthig et al, 2017a, b). Thus, just as bracing occurs when faced with the "moment of truth" in the form of performance feedback, rebounds or upward shifts in subsequent performance estimates can occur when new performance opportunities arise (Carroll et al, 2006).…”