Concerns on Full Electric Mobility and Future Electricity Demand in Italy

Abstract

This work aims to provide an energy and critical analysis of the new “ecological scenario” that sees the world shift the transport sector from the classic fossil-fueled traction towards a purely electric traction. Is it a transition to a cleaner and more environmentally friendly world? This is the central question we need to answer. In this context of forced electrification of passenger vehicles, the authors estimated the electricity surplus needed in Italy to face this transition with a projection up to 2050, considering the electricity demand of purely electric vehicles and for the production of green hydrogen for the fuel supply of fuel cell vehicles. Throughout this investigation, the authors discovered that, in 2050, the surplus of electricity to be produced compared to the current production in Italy (year 2021) is equal to +27.6% (1). This value increases if two limit scenarios are considered: it becomes +40.0% within a limit scenario in which the entire private car fleet is made up of pure electric traction vehicles only (2). It becomes +100.6% in the hypothesis that the entire fleet of passenger cars is made up of fuel cell vehicles powered exclusively by green hydrogen (3).

Predicting the Production and Depletion of Rare Earth Elements and Their Influence on Energy Sector Sustainability through the Utilization of Multilevel Linear Prediction Mixed-Effects Models with R Software

“…The average amounts of cerium present in CATCONS vary for specific vehicle categories, which can be classified into 3 groups (Figure 1): The 2012 sedan model exemplifies the inclusion of REEs in vehicles. This particular vehicle was found to contain around 0.44 kg of REEs, with 0.4 kg integral to the vehicle's fundamental functions including safety components and the basic radio/speaker system, and 0.04 kg designated for additional features such as the navigation system, DVD player, and electrically controlled seats [62]. However, hybrid vehicles, specifically those equipped with a nickel-metal hydride battery, demonstrate a higher REE of over 3.5 kg [63].…”

Comparison of Modern Powertrains Using an Energy Model Based on Well-to-Miles Analysis

“…1. Need for an increase in the electricity produced (see Falfari et al [3]) and the creation of a capillary infrastructure capable of bringing the necessary power to every part of Europe. In [3], the authors found that, in 2050, the surplus of electricity to be produced compared to the current production in Italy (year 2021) will be equal to +27.6 %.…”

“…Need for an increase in the electricity produced (see Falfari et al [3]) and the creation of a capillary infrastructure capable of bringing the necessary power to every part of Europe. In [3], the authors found that, in 2050, the surplus of electricity to be produced compared to the current production in Italy (year 2021) will be equal to +27.6 %. Furthermore, the demand for electricity availability is concentrated in specific time slots for both domestic and industrial uses (including the need to recharge electric vehicles).…”

“…Therefore, in specific areas of the country with a high population density, this percentage, in relation to availability, could increase significantly, while it would decrease in less populous areas. The request of electricity would increase if two extreme scenarios were considered [3]: (i) it would become +40.0 % in an extreme scenario in which the entire private car fleet consisted of pure electric vehicles only; (ii) it would become +100.6 % if the entire car fleet consisted of fuel cell vehicles powered exclusively by green hydrogen. 2.…”

“…As far as the authors know, no forecast to date provides for a complete transition of road transport to the electric propulsion system. In [3], the authors proposed a methodology to predict the number of future vehicles in Italy and the different types of propulsors that will power them. They found that, in the time frame 2030-2050, there will be a reduction of ICEVs (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle) with a progressive increase of PHEVs (Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle), BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle) and FCEVs (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle).…”