Conceptual Twist of Japanese Nuclear Policy: Its Ambivalence and Coherence Under the US Umbrella

The NPT succeeded in its initial task of preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons to the potential proliferators considered likely at the time of its entry into force in 1970. Thus, it helped prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to the ten, twenty, twenty-five countries that President John F. Kennedy once feared. It was helped by the establishment of the IAEA comprehensive safeguard system to monitor the nuclear activities of those countries that pledged not to acquire nuclear weapons under the treaty. The NPT, over the years, also succeeded in enticing the second tier countries, thus bringing the treaty to a near universal adherence. This was helped by the strong diplomatic efforts by the United States, and subsequently by the end of the Cold War. However, in the last three decades, the NPT started to show its limits. Clandestine nuclear weapons programs were proceeding in Iraq, Libya and South Africa. During the course inability of the IAEA safeguards in uncovering nuclear weapon programs in a timely fashion became evident. In the area of promoting nuclear disarmament, the NPT cannot claim to be very successful. Even after 50 years of its existence, the achievement of the goal set in Article VI of the treaty has a long way to go. Peaceful use of nuclear energy went vibrant in the past 50 years helped by the IAEA works in the field.

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Japanese Public Opinion, Political Persuasion, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Baron

Gibbons

Herzog

2020

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament

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The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) poses a challenge to decades of Japanese nuclear policy. While Japan has relied on the US nuclear umbrella since the aftermath of World War II, numerous pro-disarmament groups -including the Hibakushaare calling for Tokyo to join the Treaty. We contribute to these discussions with commentary on a new national survey we conducted in Japan (N = 1,333). Our results indicate that baseline support for the Prime Minister signing and the Diet ratifying the TPNW stands at approximately 75% of the Japanese public. Only 17.7% of the population is opposed, and 7.3% is undecided. Moreover, this support is cross-cutting, with a wide majority of every demographic group in the country favoring nuclear disarmament. Most strikingly, an embedded survey experiment demonstrates that the Japanese government cannot shift public opinion to oppose the Ban through the use of policy arguments or social pressure. Such broad support for the TPNW indicates that the Japanese government will not be able to hide from the Treaty and must take action to restore its credibility as a leader on nuclear disarmament.

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Conceptual Twist of Japanese Nuclear Policy: Its Ambivalence and Coherence Under the US Umbrella

Cited by 3 publications

References 2 publications

Japan: A Nuclear State?

Japan: A Nuclear State?

The NPT at Fifty: Successes and Failures

Japanese Public Opinion, Political Persuasion, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

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