Conceptual sizing of next supersonic passenger aircraft from regression of the limited existing designs

Abstract

Despite previous versions, there are no current supersonic passenger transport aircraft. Much aircraft research is focused on hypersonic flight and the new technologies therein and is therefore unlikely to add to commercial versions anytime soon. This study re-examines conceptual sizing of a supersonic transport aircraft based on extant supersonic designs in order to ignite research into whether a commercially-viable design might exist. Key metrics are developed using distances between likely airport network nodes, an assumed number of passengers, and a reduction in transport time to one-third of current journeys. The study uses multiple response regression of known designs to develop key performance formulae, which are then optimized to set performance values so as to estimate an initial aircraft size, including an expected value analysis to guide the next conceptual design iteration. Twenty years ago a NASA Langley Research optimization system was used to examine non-linear regression of supersonic aircraft designs and to optimize such a design around similar performance criteria. In contrast, this work is the first supersonic transport aircraft sizing to use commercially-available Excel add-on software and standard design-for-sixsigma analysis techniques; notably for the sensitivity analyses to guide the next design iteration.

Conceptual design and integration of a propulsion system for a supersonic transport aircraft

“…This research extends on an earlier multifactor regression sizing study 9 to determine in greater design detail what the configuration of a 200-passenger Mach 3.0 aircraft could be using extant technology. This research article is the second part of two and covers a suitable and cost-effective propulsion system for the executive supersonic passenger aircraft (ESPA).…”

“…8 Since the Concorde and the Tu-144, the performance of aircraft engines have been enhanced through three leading technologies: better materials and manufacturing processes, the advent of variable cycle engines (VCEs) and variable stator technology. This research extends on an earlier multifactor regression sizing study 9 to determine in greater design detail what the configuration of a 200-passenger Mach 3.0 aircraft could be using extant technology. This research article is the second part of two and covers a suitable and cost-effective propulsion system for the executive supersonic passenger aircraft (ESPA).…”

“…14 The planned routes for the ESPA are given by Joiner, Zahra. 9 A range of 4000 nautical miles would service 60% of these routes which would provide a significant market for the commercial transport industry. 2 Therefore, throughout the analysis, the aircraft fuel weight will be adjusted to give an aircraft range of between 4000 and 6000 nautical miles.…”

“…The ESPA is a conceptual SST design by an Australian university 9 with a target range of 5000 nm, minimum passenger capacity of 200, and a cruise of Mach 3. The developed configuration is in Figure 1 from Lawrence, Hutchinson.…”

Conceptual aerodynamic design of an executive supersonic passenger aircraft – ESPA

“…There is a crucial trade-off required between range, time of flight and passenger numbers with a market opportunity for a supersonic transport. 3,22 According to Kraev and Siluyanova, 5 Russian studies find:‘ In economic terms, supersonic passenger planes are only viable if the need for speed outweighs the operating costs. Supersonic aircraft are best suited to medium and long routes, since supersonic velocity is only attained in cruising.…”