Conceptual Provisions for Prediction of State Aviation Aircraft No-Failure Indicators

Abstract

A conceptual approach to predicting of aircraft no-failure indicators during operational use is proposed. This approach is based on the use of methods of statistical analysis of operational data for a certain period of time. The results of predicting the failure flow parameter using a combined model of acceptable level and their standard deviation are presented. The results of predicting can be used to control the reliability (no-failure operation) of aircraft equipment in order to make grounded decisions about the continued operation of their equipment beyond the established life service.
 In order to create highly reliable aircraft it is necessary to predict failure rates, which involves the establishment of their range and quantitative values.
 To predict the thresholds of failure of the aircraft, it is advisable to use the following interval indicators of reliability:
 
 Ricao “accident level” indicator, which takes into account the number of flight failures detected in 100 hours and actually determines the dynamics of changes in the level of flight safety;
 “failure flow parameter, ω (t)”, which takes into account the total number of failures per hour of flight and determines the dynamics of changes in the level of operational
 
 The predicted value of the indicator of the “reliability upper control limit”, which determines the limit level of operatioanl reliability, at which further reliable operation of the aircraft is not desirable.
 According to the concept of “acceptable level of safety performance”, predictions of indicators for three levels of flight safety (acceptable, target, critical) are calculated, which need to be monitored in future periods of aircraft operation and make certain management decisions according to the proposed algorithm.
 The results of calculation for prediction indicators of reliability for specific types of aircraft according to their operation in the period 2017-2019 are presented.