“…In a prior predictive check, the choice of prior determines the scale of the predictive distribution, enabling this approach to show more possible structures in predictions that are consistent with a model specification but which are ruled out by the fitting process. Contrasting these approaches raises the question of whether enabling users to specify priors and sample from them would be a more direct way to assess users' expectations through visual checks, to the extent that elicited models represent users' beliefs as assumed by prior work [8,9,32]. However, designing for Bayesian predictive checks might increase the level of modeling complexity beyond what some VA users are familiar with, e.g., requiring procedures for fine tuning and justifying priors.…”