Computerization and the future of primary care: A survey of general practitioners in the UK

Blease, Charlotte; Bernstein, Michael H.; Gaab, Jens; Kaptchuk, Ted J.; Kossowsky, Joe; Mandl, Kenneth D.; Davis, Roger B.; DesRoches, Catherine M.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0207418

Cited by 54 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(37 reference statements)

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“…The survey randomly sampled registered psychiatrists to get representation from the US, Europe and the rest of the world. As such this was an exploratory study and we aimed for a target sample size of approximately 750 psychiatrist respondents, to approximate a prior report (18). The survey collected information on nationality, demographics, perceptions of the future of psychiatry; perceptions of the workforce; and practice characteristics.…”

Section: Study Samplementioning

confidence: 99%

Artificial intelligence and the future of psychiatry: Insights from a global physician survey

Doraiswamy

Blease

Bodner

2020

Artificial Intelligence in Medicine

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114

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Background:Futurists have predicted that new autonomous technologies, embedded with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), will lead to substantial job losses in many sectors disrupting many aspects of healthcare. Mental health appears ripe for such disruption given the global illness burden, stigma, and shortage of care providers.Objective: To characterize the global psychiatrist community's opinion regarding the potential of future autonomous technology (referred to here as AI/ML) to replace key tasks carried out in mental health practice.Design: Cross sectional, random stratified sample of psychiatrists registered with Sermo, a global networking platform open to verified and licensed physicians. Main outcome measures:We measured opinions about the likelihood that AI/ML tools would be able to fully replace -not just assist -the average psychiatrist in performing 10 key psychiatric tasks. Among those who considered replacement likely, we measured opinions about how many years from now such a capacity might emerge. We also measured psychiatrist's perceptions about whether benefits of AI/ML would outweigh the risks.Results: Survey respondents were 791 psychiatrists from 22 countries representing North America, South America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Only 3.8% of respondents felt it was likely that future technology would make their jobs obsolete and only 17% felt that future AI/ML was likely to replace a human clinician for providing empathetic care. Documenting and updating medical records (75%) and synthesizing information (54%) were the two tasks where a majority predicted that AI/ML could fully replace human psychiatrists. Female-and US-based doctors were more uncertain that the benefits of AI would outweigh risks than male-and non-US doctors, respectively. Around one in 2 psychiatrists did however predict that their jobs would be substantially changed by AI/ML. Conclusions:To our knowledge, this is the first global survey to seek the opinions of physicians on the impact of autonomous AI/ML on the future of psychiatry. Our findings provide compelling insights into how physicians think about AI/ML which in turn may help us better integrate technology and reskill doctors to enhance mental health care.

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Section: Study Samplementioning

confidence: 99%

Artificial intelligence and the future of psychiatry: Insights from a global physician survey

Doraiswamy

Blease

Bodner

2020

Artificial Intelligence in Medicine

Self Cite

114

105

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“…In terms of physicians' responsibilities, experts did not envisage that AI/ML will help to reduce documentation burdens by 2029 [10,12]. This prediction contrasts with the more optimistic opinions of surveyed physicians.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 92%

“…Recently a number of surveys have explored medical students', and physicians' views about the impact of AI/ML on the future of medical practice [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. Currently, there is scarce exploration of consensus views among informaticians [17]; in particular, on how AI/ML might meaningfully influence medical care in the short-term [18].…”

Section: Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

US primary care in 2029: A Delphi survey on the impact of machine learning

et al. 2020

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Objective To solicit leading health informaticians' predictions about the impact of AI/ML on primary care in the US in 2029. Design A three-round online modified Delphi poll. Participants Twenty-nine leading health informaticians. Methods In September 2019, health informatics experts were selected by the research team, and invited to participate the Delphi poll. Participation in each round was anonymous, and panelists were given between 4-8 weeks to respond to each round. In Round 1 open-ended questions solicited forecasts on the impact of AI/ML on: (1) patient care, (2) access to care, (3) the primary care workforce, (4) technological breakthroughs, and (5) the long-future for primary care physicians. Responses were coded to produce itemized statements. In Round 2, participants were invited to rate their agreement with each item along 7-point Likert scales. Responses were analyzed for consensus which was set at a predetermined interquartile range of � 1. In Round 3 items that did not reach consensus were redistributed. Results A total of 16 experts participated in Round 1 (16/29, 55%). Of these experts 13/16 (response rate, 81%), and 13/13 (response rate, 100%), responded to Rounds 2 and 3, respectively. As a result of developments in AI/ML by 2029 experts anticipated workplace changes

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“…Recently a number of surveys have explored medical students', and physicians' views about the impact of AI/ML on the future of medical practice (10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16). Currently, there is scarce exploration of consensus views among informaticians on how AI/ML might meaningfully influence medical care in the short-term (17).…”

Section: Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(11,15) Survey research also indicates skepticism among physicians that AI/ML will be able to directly substitute for, or augment clinicians, in the provision of empathic care. (10)(11)(12)15) In terms of physicians' responsibilities, experts did not envisage that AI/ML will help to reduce documentation burdens by 2029 (10,12). This prediction contrasts with the more optimistic opinions of surveyed physicians.…”

Section: Summary Of Major Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

US Primary Care in 2029: A Delphi Survey on the Impact of Machine Learning

Blease

Kharko

Locher

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Objective: To solicit leading health informaticians predictions about the impact of AI/ML on primary care in the US in 2029. Design: A three-round online modified Delphi poll. Participants: Twenty-nine leading health informaticians. Methods: In September 2019, health informatics experts were selected by the research team, and invited to participate the Delphi poll. Participation in each round was anonymous, and panelists were given between 4-8 weeks to respond to each round. In Round 1 open-ended questions solicited forecasts on the impact of AI/ML on: (1) patient care, (2) access to care, (3) the primary care workforce, (4) technological breakthroughs, and (5) the long-future for primary care physicians. Responses were coded to produce itemized statements. In Round 2, participants were invited to rate their agreement with each item along 7-point Likert scales. Responses were analyzed for consensus which was set at a predetermined interquartile range of ≤ 1. In Round 3 items that did not reach consensus were redistributed. Results: A total of 16 experts participated in Round 1 (16/29, 55%). Of these experts 13/16 (response rate, 81%), and 13/13 (response rate, 100%), responded to Rounds 2 and 3, respectively. As a result of developments in AI/ML by 2029 experts anticipated workplace changes including incursions into the disintermediation of physician expertise, and increased AI/ML training requirements for medical students. Informaticians also forecast that by 2029 AI/ML will increase diagnostic accuracy especially among those with limited access to experts, minorities and those with rare diseases. Expert panelists also predicted that AI/ML-tools would improve access to expert doctor knowledge. Conclusions: This study presents timely information on informaticians consensus views about the impact of AI/ML on US primary care in 2029. Preparation for the near-future of primary care will require improved levels of digital health literacy among patients and physicians.

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Computerization and the future of primary care: A survey of general practitioners in the UK

Cited by 54 publications

References 25 publications

Artificial intelligence and the future of psychiatry: Insights from a global physician survey

Artificial intelligence and the future of psychiatry: Insights from a global physician survey

US primary care in 2029: A Delphi survey on the impact of machine learning

US Primary Care in 2029: A Delphi Survey on the Impact of Machine Learning

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