Computations on Frost Damage to Scots Pine Under Climatic Warming in Boreal Conditions

Abstract

To investigate the risk of frost damage to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in northern regions under climatic warming, a submodel for such damage to trees was included in a forest ecosystem model of the gap type. An annual growth multiplier describing the effects of frost was calculated with the help of simulated daily frost hardiness and daily minimum temperature. The annual growth multiplier was used in the main ecosystem model when simulating the development of a tree stand using a time step of one year. Simulations of the growth and development of Scots pine stands in southern Finland (61° N) under an elevating temperature indicated that climatic warming could increase the risk of frost damage due to premature onset of growth during warm spells in the late winter and early spring. Risk of frost damage imp1ies uncertainty in yie1d expectations from borea1 forest ecosystems in the event of climatic warming.

Physiological and Environmental Causes of Freezing Injury in Red Spruce

“…Causes of Freezing Injury in Red Spruce 205 several researchers have used computer models to simulate the impact of warming on bud phenology and growth initiation for trees in northern Europe (Hanninen, 199 1;Kellomaki et al, 1995). These models predict that climatic warming could speed ontogenetic development following the chilling period and induce budbreak as early as midwinter (Hanninen, 1991;Kellomaki et al, 1995). Because temperatures below 0°C are likely to occur in winter and early spring despite overall warming, budbreak would likely increase the risk of frost injury (Hanninen, 1991;Kellomaki et al, 1995).…”

“…These models predict that climatic warming could speed ontogenetic development following the chilling period and induce budbreak as early as midwinter (Hanninen, 1991;Kellomaki et al, 1995). Because temperatures below 0°C are likely to occur in winter and early spring despite overall warming, budbreak would likely increase the risk of frost injury (Hanninen, 1991;Kellomaki et al, 1995). Although the assumptions used in these models require further evaluation, the predictions of Hanninen (1991) and Kellomaki et al (1995) raise concerns about the possible influence of climate change on bud development for all northern tree species, including red spruce.…”

Climatic warming and its effect on bud burst and risk of frost damage to white spruce in Canada

“…The prediction of variable frost risk to white spruce in Canada with climate warming compares with predictions of decreased risk for other coniferous tree species, including, Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and pinus sylvestris L. in The Netherlands and Germany (Kramer 1994), and increased h s t risk to Pinus sylvestris in northern Finland (Himinen 1991, 1995, Kellomdci et al 1995. Frost risk to Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.…”

“…Kellomaki et al (1995) consider the dormant state to consist of three physiological stages they term lipfication, rest and quiescence. Dunng lignification, buds are initiating bud scales or needle primordia and are unable to quickly resume growth when placed '~ntario Forest Research Institute, Ministry of Natural Resources, 1235 Queen Street East, Sault Ste.…”

Ensemble analysis of frost damage on vegetation caused by spring backlashes in a warmer Europe

“…The projected changes in risk of frost damage may have implications for forest production. Non-reversible frost damage can kill seedlings, and reversible frost damage requires high energy and water consumption for repair to occur, constraining the annual carbon gain and growth (Burton and Cumming, 1995;Kellomäki et al, 1995;Bergh et al, 1998;Man et al, 2009). Tree species with a more light-regulated spring phenology, such as oak and beech (Schaber and Badeck, 2003;Heide, 1993), could be an option to Norway spruce in regions with an increased risk for spring frost damage as they are less sensitive to temperature-induced dehardening.…”