Computational decision analysis for flood risk management in an uncertain future

Harvey, Hamish; Hall, Jim W.; Peppé, Roger

doi:10.2166/hydro.2011.055

Cited by 25 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…The global increase in flood risk, and related complex of socio-political, economic, and ecological problems is at the forefront of much current research (Apel et al, 2009;Di Baldassarre et al, 2010;Lane et al, 2011;Landstrom et al, 2011;Di Baldassarre and Uhlenbrook, 2012;Harvey et al, 2012;Pappenberger et al, 2012;Winsemius et al, 2013;www.kulturisk.eu). However, as we argue in this paper, a sufficient understanding of the dynamics of flood risk is still lacking, preventing the formulation of sustainable and equitable floodplain management strategies.…”

Section: G DI Baldassarre Et Al: Floodplains As Human-water Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Natural scientists focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience of the system (Apel et al, 2009;Di Baldassarre et al, 2010;Harvey et al, 2012;Pappenberger et al, 2012;Winsemius et al, 2013;www.kulturisk.eu). However, the aforementioned examples showed that, in reality, the two components are deeply intertwined.…”

Section: Current Limitations In Understanding Floodplainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems

Baldassarre

Kooy

Kemerink

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

213

127

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Abstract. This paper offers a conceptual approach to explore the complex dynamics of floodplains as fully coupled human-water systems. A number of hydrologists have recently investigated the impact of human activities (such as flood control measures, land-use changes, and settlement patterns) on the frequency and severity of floods. Meanwhile, social scientists have shown how interactions between society and waters in deltas and floodplain areas, including the frequency and severity of floods, have an impact on the ways in which social relations unfold (in terms of governance processes, policies, and institutions) and societies are organised (spatially, politically, and socially). However, we argue that the interactions and associated feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. Thus, there is a need to better understand how the institutions and governance processes interact with hydrological processes in deltas and floodplains to influence the frequency and severity of floods, while (in turn) hydrological processes co-constitute the social realm and make a difference for how social relations unfold to shape governance processes and institutions. Our research goal, therefore, is not in identifying one or the other side of the cycle (hydrological or social), but in explaining the relationship between them: how, when, where, and why they interact, and to what result for both social relations and hydrological processes? We argue that long time series of hydrological and social data, along with remote sensing data, can be used to observe floodplain dynamics from unconventional approaches, and understand the complex interactions between water and human systems taking place in floodplain areas, across scales and levels of human impacts, and within different hydro-climatic conditions, socio-cultural settings, and modes of governance.

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Section: G DI Baldassarre Et Al: Floodplains As Human-water Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Current Limitations In Understanding Floodplainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems

Baldassarre

Kooy

Kemerink

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

213

127

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…A focus on risk also inevitably leads to exploration of variability and uncertainty in appraisal decisions. Harvey et al (142) propose a multilayer decision analysis framework for risk-based appraisal of sequences of investment decisions under uncertainty. Their approach involves extensive sampling of natural variability to compute water-related risks and their change through time.…”

Section: Infrastructure Investmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Security and Society: Risks, Metrics, and Pathways

Garrick

Hall

2014

Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.

118

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Water security is a major challenge for science and society. We review the rapidly growing literature on water security from the perspective of risk science and management. Competing definitions and indicators of water security reflect unsettled conceptual and methodological issues. However, risk concepts have become prevalent in defining water security; measuring it quantitatively; tracking indicators of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability; and informing management options to reduce water-related risks. We examine water security indicators and indices to identify thresholds for waterrelated risks across multiple dimensions of water security and examine how these vary across different scales and socioeconomic contexts. Water security indicators reveal a disparity in hazards and vulnerability across geographic and political-economic conditions. Recognition of water security as a major societal challenge has been closely followed by a strong commitment to academic, government, development, and policy responses. Pathways to water security capture the sequence of investments in institutions and infrastructure to reduce water-related risks and manage trade-offs. Two well-studied water management case studies illustrate the pathways to water security and the need for more systematic comparative assessment.

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“…The distribution of damages and expectation (risk) is calculated from this Monte Carlo sample of damage. Simulation of processes of change through time, and the effects of interventions designed to reduce risk provides the basis for risk-based decision making and design (Harvey, Hall et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Risk Management Decision Analysis with Finite Historical Records and Highly Variable Climate Effects

Rehan¹

2014

Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk

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Engineering design for fluvial flood defencesis often constrained by limited historical records. Under the circumstances a case could be made for delaying action in order to acquire more data. This paper explores the economic performance of strategies to proactively proceed with flood protection, or, alternatively, to delay expenditure until after extreme events have occurred, under different scenarios ofclimate change using an innovative risk-based optimization framework for fluvial flood defenceembedded within a Monte-Carlo simulation methodology. In particular we explore the potential influence of auto-correlation (persistency) in series of extreme events. The relative effects of sampling error and climate persistencyhave been investigated.

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Computational decision analysis for flood risk management in an uncertain future

Cited by 25 publications

References 0 publications

Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems

Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems

Water Security and Society: Risks, Metrics, and Pathways

Flood Risk Management Decision Analysis with Finite Historical Records and Highly Variable Climate Effects

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