Computation of Risk Assessment Modelling

Makita, Kohei; Kouamé-Sina, Sylvie Mireille; Lindahl, Johanna F.; Desissa, Fanta

doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-100596-5.22554-7

Cited by 2 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Mathematically, there is always a non-zero probability of infection or illness when a host is exposed to an infectious pathogenic organism (CAC/GL -30, 1999;Wagner & Hensel, 2011;WHO, 2009). Stochastic risk assessment involves a variety of calculations in modelling the probability of illness using different parameters, including the concentration of the hazard, frequency and amount of ingestion, probability of contamination, storage temperature and the time until consumption (Makita et al, 2019).…”

Section: Risk Characterisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foodborne bacteria in the Cambodian meat value chain: Emphasis on the risk of Salmonella in chicken and pork from traditional markets to household consumption

Rortana¹

2023

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Sueciae

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Foodborne pathogens, such as Salmonella and Staphylococcus aureus, pose a high risk to human health globally. Using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), this thesis estimated the risk of salmonellosis to Cambodian consumers eating contaminated chicken and pork salad. Chicken meat and pork samples (n=204 each) were collected from traditional markets in 25 provinces in Cambodia for analyses of Salmonella and also S. aureus. Practices used for preparing chicken and pork salads in 93 Cambodian households were surveyed and used to design an experiment assessing Salmonella cross-contamination from raw meat to ready-to-eat salad in four scenarios. Salmonella prevalence in chicken meat and pork was found at 42.6% (87/204) and 45.1% (92/204), respectively, with mean Salmonella concentration of 10.6 MPN/g in chicken meat and 11.1 MPN/g in pork. Salmonella contamination, salad consumption and dose-response were modelled using Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations. The QMRA model showed that the annual estimated risk of salmonellosis from consuming chicken salad, pork salad and both salads was 11.2% (90% CI 0.0-35.1), 4.0% (0.0-21.3) and 14.5% (0.0-33.5), respectively. Thus one in 10 chicken salad consumers in Cambodia was at risk of contracting salmonellosis annually. The factor with the most decisive influence on risk estimates was crosscontamination while preparing salad, followed by high prevalence of Salmonella on chicken meat/pork at the market. These results indicate a need to implement control measures, including monitoring the safety of retail chicken and pork at markets and improving hygiene in practices and equipment used during salad preparation in households.

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Section: Risk Characterisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foodborne bacteria in the Cambodian meat value chain: Emphasis on the risk of Salmonella in chicken and pork from traditional markets to household consumption

Rortana¹

2023

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Sueciae

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“…Fault tree analysis is a safety and reliability analysis technique for complex dynamic systems. It is the technique to identify the points where failure happened and then trace back to identify the cause at each step (Haymerle, 2011; Makita et al. , 2019).…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, failure events associated with PPSC are grouped in Table 1 2.2 Fault tree analysis Fault tree analysis is a safety and reliability analysis technique for complex dynamic systems. It is the technique to identify the points where failure happened and then trace back to identify the cause at each step (Haymerle, 2011;Makita et al, 2019). The objective of FTA is to translate the physical system into logic diagram which explains the critical event resulted in system failure (Lee et al, 1985).…”

Section: Organization Of the Papermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been used in assessing vulnerabilities in the food system (Chodur et al, 2018). Makita et al (2019) used fault tree analysis to trace back the causes of food poisoning due to consumption of milk. Bhardwaj and Agrawal (2020) discussed the application of fault tree and Petri net in PPSC system.…”

Section: Organization Of the Papermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, 2018). Makita et al. (2019) used fault tree analysis to trace back the causes of food poisoning due to consumption of milk.…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Benchmarking the failure assessment of perishable product supply chain using fault tree approach: insights from apple case study of India

Bhardwaj

Agrawal

2022

BIJ

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to facilitate perishable product supply chain (PPSC) managers and practitioners to assess PPSC failure events. The paper proposed fault tree methodology for assessing failures associated with PPSC for evaluating the performance in terms of effective PPSC management adoption.Design/methodology/approachInitially, different failure events were identified from literature and semi-structured interviews from experts. Fault tree model was developed from the identified failure events. Probability of failure events was calculated using Poisson distribution based on the annual reports and interviews conducted from experts. Further, qualitative analysis – minimum cut sets (MCSs), structural importance coefficient (SIC) – and quantitative analysis – Birnbaum importance measure (BIM), criticality importance factor (CIF) and diagnosis importance factor (DIF) – were performed for ranking of failure events. In this study, fault tree development and analysis were conducted on apple supply chain to present the authenticity of this method for failure analysis.FindingsThe findings indicate that the failure events, given as failure at production and procurement (A2), that is, involvement of middleman (BE3), handling and packaging failure (BE4) and transportation failure (A3), hold the highest-ranking scores in analysis of PPSC using fault tree approach.Originality/valueThis research uses the modularization approach for evaluation of failure events of PPSC. This paper explores failures related to PPSC for efficient management initiatives in apple supply chain context. The paper also provides suggestion from managerial perspective with respect to each failure event.

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Computation of Risk Assessment Modelling

Cited by 2 publications

References 23 publications

Foodborne bacteria in the Cambodian meat value chain: Emphasis on the risk of Salmonella in chicken and pork from traditional markets to household consumption

Foodborne bacteria in the Cambodian meat value chain: Emphasis on the risk of Salmonella in chicken and pork from traditional markets to household consumption

Benchmarking the failure assessment of perishable product supply chain using fault tree approach: insights from apple case study of India

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