Comprehensive Analysis of Indonesian Retail Stocks Valuation in 2023

Abstract

Modern retail businesses in Indonesia are growing rapidly thanks to open market opportunities, manufacturing businesses that support product supply, and government support for economic growth through retail development. The purpose of this study is to determine the intrinsic value of shares of companies engaged in the food and staples retail sub-sector which in this case is represented by PT. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, Tbk. (AMRT), PT. Diamond Food Indonesia, Tbk. (DMND), PT. Midi Utama Indonesia, Tbk. (MIDI), PT. Enseval Putera Megatrading, Tbk. (EPMT), and PT. Millenium Pharmacon Internatioanl, Tbk. (SDPC) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This research uses historical data for 2018-2022 which will be used as the basis for projections for 2023-2027. The results showed that by using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, specifically the Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach, under an optimistic scenario, the intrinsic values of AMRT, SDPC, and DMND were undervalued. EPMT and MIDI stocks are overvalued. In the moderate scenario, the intrinsic values of AMRT, MIDI, EPMT, and DMND are overvalued, while SDPC is undervalued. Calculations on a pessimistic scenario, all companies studied are overvalued. In this study, the valuation of stocks was also conducted using the Relative Valuation (RV) method with the Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches. In an optimistic scenario, the stocks of AMRT, MIDI, and SDPC are considered expensive, while EPMT and DMND are seen cheap. In a moderat scenario, the stocks AMRT, EPMT, and SDPC are considered undervalued, while MIDI and DMND are seen expensive. In a pessimistic scenario, it is observed that AMRT, EPMT, and SDPC are undervalued, whereas MIDI and DMND are considered overvalued. This research aims to provide an objective assessment of the company, which investors can use to consider investments and by companies to enhance corporate value.