Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation in Eastern Europe

Vyshkvarkova, Elena; Sukhonos, Olga

doi:10.3390/cli10090133

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…The continuous increase in air temperature contributes to an increase in the frequency of extremes in many parts of the globe. Previously, it was shown that negative trends for cold indices were found in Eastern Europe, and positive trends were found for warm ones [55]. Similar trends are typical for most regions of the globe [56][57][58].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

Sukhonos

Vyshkvarkova

2023

Climate

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Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of compound extremes in air temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world, especially under dry and hot conditions. Compound extremes have a significant impact on all spheres of human activity, such as health, agriculture, and energy. Features of atmospheric circulation are closely related to the occurrence of anomalies in air temperature and precipitation. The article analyzes the relationship of atmospheric circulation modes with compound extremes that have had the greatest impact on the Atlantic–European region over the territory of Eastern Europe over the past 60 years on extreme air temperature and precipitation. Combinations of extreme temperature and humidity conditions (indices)— cold-dry (CD), cold-wet (CW), warm-dry (WD) and warm-wet (WW)—were used as compound extremes. Indices of compound extremes were calculated according to the E-OBS reanalysis data. Estimates of the relationship between two time series were carried out using standard correlation and composite analyses, as well as cross wavelet analysis. Phase relationships and time intervals for different climatic indices were different. The period of most fluctuations in the indices of compound extremes was from 4 to 12 years and was observed during 1970–2000. The coherent fluctuations in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index occurred rather in phase, those in the time series of the CD and WD indices and the Arctic oscillation (AO) index occurred in antiphase, and those in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) index occurred in antiphase. Statistically significant increase in the number of warm compound extremes was found for the northern parts of the study region in the winter season with positive NAO and AO phases.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

Sukhonos

Vyshkvarkova

2023

Climate

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“…Since the 1980s, the NAO and MOI have exhibited large year-to-year variability ( Figure A1 ) [ 26 , 67 , 88 ]. The summer SCAND has shown a mostly negative linear trend since the mid-20th century [ 113 ], but its inter-annual variation increased since the 1990s [ 114 ]; thus, this trend in the late summer SCAND is no longer valid ( Figure A1 ). A lack of significant long-term trend in the overall passage (AA) at Hel ( Figure 3 A), which was influenced by the spring MOI and the late summer SCAND in the previous year ( Figure 4 B), is consistent with no long-term trends in both these climate indices ( Figure A1 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carry-Over Effects of Climate Variability at Breeding and Non-Breeding Grounds on Spring Migration in the European Wren Troglodytes troglodytes at the Baltic Coast

Gołębiewski,

Remisiewicz

2023

Animals

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Many studies have linked changes in avian phenology in Europe to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which serves as a proxy for conditions in western Europe. However, the effects of climate variation in other regions of Europe on the phenology of short-distance migrants with large non-breeding grounds remain unclear. We determined the combined influence of large-scale climate indices, NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND), during the preceding year on spring migration timing of European wren at the southern Baltic coast during 1982–2021. We modelled the effects of these climate variables on the entire passage and subsequent percentiles of the wren’s passage at Bukowo-Kopań and Hel ringing stations. Over 1982–2021, the start and median of migration shifted earlier at Hel, but the end of passage shifted later at both stations. In effect, the duration of passage at Hel was extended by 7.6 days. Early passage at Hel was related with high MOI in spring and the preceding autumn. Spring passage at Bukowo-Kopań was delayed after high NAO in the previous breeding season, and high winter and spring NAO. Late spring passage occurred at both stations following a high SCAND in the previous summer. At both locations, an early start or median of passage followed high local temperatures. We conclude that phenology of the wren’s spring migration at the Baltic coast was shaped by conditions encountered at wintering quarters in western Europe, where NAO operates, and in the south-eastern Europe, where the MOI operates, in conjunction with conditions in Scandinavia during the previous breeding season. We demonstrated that climate variability in various parts of the migrants’ range has combined carry-over effects on in migrants’ phenology in Europe.

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“…Despite signi cant progress in understanding compound extremes, their linkage over the western U.S. to major climate modes is still unclear. Several recent studies have investigated relationships between compound extremes and climate modes of variability, but the analysis was mainly focused on interannual timescales related to impacts from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 7,24,25,26 . ENSO is the main source of seasonal climate predictability around the world and particularly over North America 65,66 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modulation of western U.S. compound precipitation and temperature extremes by compounding MJO and ENSO interaction

Wang,

DeFlorio,

Gershunov

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Extreme weather and climate events can have substantial impacts on society and the environment. Compound extremes (two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or successively) may exert even larger impacts than individual events. This study examines physical drivers behind variability in hydrometeorological (precipitation and temperature) compound extremes on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales (2 weeks – 6 months). Observational evidence presented here indicates significant modulation of western U.S. compound extreme frequency by the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a unique type of organized tropical convection varying primarily on S2S timescales. For example, when the MJO is active over the western Pacific, a robust increase in wet-cold extreme frequency is found in Southern California. When the MJO is over the Maritime Continent, an overall increase in dry-hot extremes is observed across the western U.S.. The MJO influence on compound extremes is largely modulated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can be seen through different magnitudes or changes in sign of the canonical MJO-extreme relationship conditioned on ENSO state. Similarly, the MJO can interrupt the canonical ENSO-compound extreme relationship. Our results suggest a potential route to improve western U.S. S2S prediction of compound hydrometeorological extremes by considering the combined effect of both MJO and ENSO.

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Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation in Eastern Europe

Cited by 17 publications

References 79 publications

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

Carry-Over Effects of Climate Variability at Breeding and Non-Breeding Grounds on Spring Migration in the European Wren Troglodytes troglodytes at the Baltic Coast

Modulation of western U.S. compound precipitation and temperature extremes by compounding MJO and ENSO interaction

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