Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

Abstract

ABSTRACT. This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM) issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent) conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems-restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issuesthat make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies-organized as two contrasting pairs-and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

Water service delivery challenges in a small South African municipality: Identifying and exploring key elements and relationships in a complex social-ecological system

“…As complex systems are impossible to understand or explore in their entirety, it is more effective to focus on a limited number of components (Cilliers et al, 2013). Deciding what falls within and out of a system is the next important step in a systems inquiry.…”

“…Water management systems are complex as they comprise environmental, human, economic and technological elements (Pahl-Wostl, 2007;Slinger et al, 2011) with non-linear interactions, inherent feedbacks, and scale-sensitive processes, and are thus prone to unpredictable outcomes (Cilliers, 2000). Problems associated with water management systems are therefore inherently complex and not conducive to reductionist problem-solving approaches (Cilliers et al, 2013). Consequently, negotiating a 'just transition' (Swilling and Annecke, 2012) from an unjust Apartheid system to a situation where household water supply is reliable, sustainable and equitable has been a challenge faced by many South African municipalities and requires a shift from past unsuccessful approaches Biswas, 2008) to more novel approaches (Rogers et al, 2013).…”

Generalizable principles for ecosystem stewardship-based management of social-ecological systems: lessons learned from Alaska

“…Our understanding of SES is usually incomplete. However, it is increasingly apparent that system dynamics are rarely caused by a single or even small set of drivers (Holling 2001, Marcot et al 2012, Cilliers et al 2013. In both case studies, management strategies largely focused on pulses: SBB outbreak and wildfire on the Kenai Peninsula, and king salmon run size in the YRD.…”

The Complexity of Verbal Semantics—An Intricate Relationship Between Qatal and Wayyiqtol

“…Complex systems are auto-regulating organisms in which all the components are embedded and contribute to the whole (Andrason 2014a: 77;2016: 14; for a detailed discussion of the properties of complex systems, see Strogatz 1994;Crutchfield 1994;Casti 1995;Cilliers 1998Cilliers , 2005Cilliers , 2007aCilliers and 2007bAuyang 1998;Kauffmann 2000;Lewin 2000;Richardson, Mathieson andCilliers 2000, Schlindwein andIson 2007;Cilliers and Preiser 2010;Hooker 2011a and2011b;Bishop 2011;Bickhard 2011;Cilliers et al 2013;Andrason 2012 and2014a).…”

“…Fortunately, advances in modern information sciences and digital technologies in the past century have greatly increased the level of such manageability. This leaves little or no space for (artificial and/or forced) simplicity in scientific representations (Auyang 1998: 11, 15, 67-70, 342-4;Prigogine 2009: 177;Diéguez Lucena 2010: 66, 75;Hooker 2011aHooker , 2011bCilliers et al 2013;Andrason 2014a;2016).…”