Complex social and political factors threaten the world's smallest primate with extinction

Kappeler, Peter M.; Markolf, Matthias; Rasoloarison, Rodin M.; Fichtel, Claudia; Durbin, Joanna

doi:10.1111/csp2.12776

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…Our study shows that such life-history speedup can destabilize an otherwise stable population, even in the presence of an increase in mean growth rates. These climatic effects on population stability are likely to have more dramatic consequences on similar but more specialized mammals in tropical forests, such as the sympatric, critically endangered Madame Berthe’s mouse lemur ( M. berthae ) ( 39 ), especially in combination with ongoing anthropogenic destruction of their natural habitats.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Özgül

Fichtel

Paniw

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Seasonal tropical environments are among those regions that are the most affected by shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes under climate change, with potentially severe consequences for wildlife population persistence. This persistence is ultimately determined by complex demographic responses to multiple climatic drivers, yet these complexities have been little explored in tropical mammals. We use long-term, individual-based demographic data (1994 to 2020) from a short-lived primate in western Madagascar, the gray mouse lemur ( Microcebus murinus ), to investigate the demographic drivers of population persistence under observed shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall. While rainfall during the wet season has been declining over the years, dry season temperatures have been increasing, with these trends projected to continue. These environmental changes resulted in lower survival and higher recruitment rates over time for gray mouse lemurs. Although the contrasting changes have prevented the study population from collapsing, the resulting increase in life-history speed has destabilized an otherwise stable population. Population projections under more recent rainfall and temperature levels predict an increase in population fluctuations and a corresponding increase in the extinction risk over the next five decades. Our analyses show that a relatively short-lived mammal with high reproductive output, representing a life history that is expected to closely track changes in its environment, can nonetheless be threatened by climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Özgül

Fichtel

Paniw

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Currently, there are two protected areas in the region, but these are insufficiently small to sustainably maintain M. gerpi populations (see Andrianaivoarivelo et al, 2015 ; Portela et al, 2012 ). In addition, even in many protected areas deforestation rates remain high due to bureaucratic obstacles and lack of funding (Kappeler et al, 2022 ). Previous studies have already shown that microendemic mouse lemurs are susceptible to habitat fragmentation (Andriatsitohaina et al, 2020 ; Schäffler & Kappeler, 2014 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversification processes in Gerp's mouse lemur demonstrate the importance of rivers and altitude as biogeographic barriers in Madagascar's humid rainforests

van Elst,

Schüßler,

Rakotondravony

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Madagascar exhibits exceptionally high levels of biodiversity and endemism. Models to explain the diversification and distribution of species in Madagascar stress the importance of historical variability in climate conditions which may have led to the formation of geographic barriers by changing water and habitat availability. The relative importance of these models for the diversification of the various forest‐adapted taxa of Madagascar has yet to be understood. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeographic history of Gerp's mouse lemur (Microcebus gerpi) to identify relevant mechanisms and drivers of diversification in Madagascar's humid rainforests. We used restriction site associated DNA (RAD) markers and applied population genomic and coalescent‐based techniques to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, gene flow and divergence times among M. gerpi populations and its two sister species M. jollyae and M. marohita. Genomic results were complemented with ecological niche models to better understand the relative barrier function of rivers and altitude. We show that M. gerpi diversified during the late Pleistocene. The inferred ecological niche, patterns of gene flow and genetic differentiation in M. gerpi suggest that the potential for rivers to act as biogeographic barriers depended on both size and elevation of headwaters. Populations on opposite sides of the largest river in the area with headwaters that extend far into the highlands show particularly high genetic differentiation, whereas rivers with lower elevation headwaters have weaker barrier functions, indicated by higher migration rates and admixture. We conclude that M. gerpi likely diversified through repeated cycles of dispersal punctuated by isolation to refugia as a result of paleoclimatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene. We argue that this diversification scenario serves as a model of diversification for other rainforest taxa that are similarly limited by geographic factors. In addition, we highlight conservation implications for this critically endangered species, which faces extreme habitat loss and fragmentation.

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“…Although lemur subpopulations suffer significantly from large-scale forest destruction and hunting (Schwitzer et al, 2014; Randriamady et al, 2021; Borgerson et al, 2022; Kappeler et al, 2022), fragmentation effects do not yet seem to be significant at the scale of forest blocks > 10 km 2 (Steffens et al, 2022). Even the species with the largest body mass and thus the lowest population densities and numbers of individuals seem to maintain viable populations in relatively small forest blocks if human pressure is controlled (Jolly et al, 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation

Rafanoharana,

Andrianambinina,

Rasamuel

et al. 2023

Oryx

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Predicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforestation rates to extrapolate forest cover over 2017–2050 and linked the size of forest blocks to the projected persistence of lemur subpopulations. In the six IUCN categories for protected areas in Madagascar the median size of forest blocks is 9–37 km2 and median annual deforestation rates range from 0.02% in the single IUCN category III site to 0.19% in category II and 1.95% in category VI sites. In 2017, 40% of all forest blocks within protected areas were < 10 km2, and this is projected to increase to 45% in 2050. Apart from these small forest fragments, the modal site of forest blocks was 160–320 km2 in 2017, and this is projected to decrease to 80–160 km2 in 2050. The range of > 50% of all lemur species exclusively contains forest blocks of < 10 km2. The modal size of forest blocks > 10 km2 is predicted to remain at 120 km2 until 2050. Although uncertainty remains, these analyses provide hope that forest blocks within the protected areas of Madagascar will remain large enough to maintain lemur subpopulations for most species until 2050. This should allow sufficient time for the implementation of effective conservation measures.

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Complex social and political factors threaten the world's smallest primate with extinction

Cited by 5 publications

References 29 publications

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Diversification processes in Gerp's mouse lemur demonstrate the importance of rivers and altitude as biogeographic barriers in Madagascar's humid rainforests

Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation

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