Complex phenological responses to climate warming trends? Lessons from history

Abstract

Abstract. Responsiveness of Lepidoptera phenology to climate has been detected in a number of species during the current trend in global warming. There is still a question of whether climate signals would be evident in historical data. In this paper we examine the climatic response of 155 species of moths and butterflies collected during the period 1866-1884 in Wiltshire, southern England. In general, species responded to increased temperature in the previous October by delayed appearance and to increased temperature in the current spring by advanced appearance. Thus, differential changes in temperatures of the autumn and spring could well affect changes in the relative pattern of the phenology of species. Attributes influencing the species' ecology were examined to see if they influenced temperature responsiveness. In general, few consistent effects emerged, though responsiveness to climate was found to be greater for species eclosing later in the year, specifically to the previous autumn temperatures, and to hibernal environment, increasingly for species less exposed to air temperatures. These findings warn against expecting simple responses to climate warming.

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

“…Butterflies and moths have been prominent in these studies as well-documented species that are sensitive to climate, both directly and indirectly, through impacts on host species (Dennis, 1993;Pollard & Greatorex-Davies, 1997;Parmesan et al, 1999;Hill et al, 2002;Hanski et al, 2004;Sparks et al, 2006;Powney et al, 2010;Srygley et al, 2010). Most studies of climate change influencing organisms utilise coarse-grained temperature and precipitation variables that are averaged at a seasonal or even annual scale (e.g.…”

A hierarchical perspective on the diversity of butterfly species' responses to weather in the Sierra Nevada Mountains

“…Second, do species respond in similar ways to patterns of interannual variation in weather? Given the diversity of species studied, an expectation of consistency of response to weather would be naive (Sparks et al 2006). Instead, we designed analyses to ask which weather variables are associated with a more or less consistent response across species.…”

The effect of temperature and habitat quality on abundance of the Glanville fritillary on the Isle of Wight: implications for conservation management in a warming climate

“…At the broadest scale, latitude determines the climatic tolerances of species (Gutierrez & Menendez 1995;Dennis et al 2008), mainly because the time available in which to complete the life cycle is a primary constraint (Thomas 1993;Oliver et al 2009). Climate is of such importance that increases in temperature have been observed to increase range and distribution (Davies et al 2005;Lawson et al 2012), advance emergence dates (Roy & Sparks 2000;Sparks et al 2006) as well as increasing movement (Sparks et al 2005;Sparks et al 2007). However, relatively few studies have demonstrated the importance of temperature on abundance (Pollard 1988;Roy et al 2001), and so comprehending the link between temperature and population dynamics of individual species remains poorly understood (WallisDeVries et al 2011).…”