Complementarity Between Renewable Energy Sources and Regions - Brazilian Case

Abstract

The benefits of complementarity between renewable energy sources have been presented as having a positive impact, but it has been neglected in generation expansion planning studies. In this paper the complementarity between renewable energy sources and regions of Brazil is characterized and the correlation coefficients are analyzed. A methodology is also proposed to optimize the complementarity between the sources, reducing the energy storage requirements. The methodology is applied to the Brazilian case to meet the projected demand for 2050 with a 100% renewable system and the complementarity is analyzed. The characterization of the data allowed us to propose five solar regions, four wind regions, three hydro regions and a region to represent the biomass. It was possible to find complementarity (negative correlation) of: 0.97 between hydro regions; 0.86 between wind and hydro regions and; 0.96 between biomass and hydro. The proposed methodology allowed us to know which regions and their respective technologies best benefit the electrical system, being the North for solar and the Northeast for wind. Finally, it was possible to reduce the demand for water storage with sources and regions that complement the seasonal hydro drought period.

Modelo para estudo de complementaridade entre fontes intermitentes em plantas híbridas com energias marinhas renováveis, solar e eólica.

“…Na maioria dos trabalhos o foco é de analisar a correlação entre pares de fontes, buscando por curvas que tenham o menor valor, indicando uma melhor complementaridade. Para isso são utilizadas diversas metodologias (coeficiente de Pearson, coeficiente de correlação de postos de Spearman, tau de Kendall, análise de correlação canônica, entre outros) (Cantão et al, 2017;Jurasz et al, 2020;Canales et al, 2020;Gallardo et al, 2020;Cantor et al, 2022;Bekirsky et al, 2022;Iung et al, 2023;Luz et al, 2023).…”

“…No Brasil existe uma grande quantidade de trabalhos, sobretudo relacionados ao Sistema Interligado Nacional e as fontes hidráulica e eólica, que são majoritariamente responsáveis pela produção de eletricidade no país. Eles apontam que há diversas complementaridades como: espacial de hidráulica entre regiões (Cantão et al, 2017;Luz e Moura, 2019;Luz et al, 2023); entre hidrelétricas e eólicas locais e regionais (Palfi e Zambon, 2013;Neto et al, 2014;Cantão et al, 2017;Araujo e Marinho, 2019;Ávila et al, 2020Luz et al, 2023); entre hidráulica e eólica offshore (Silva et al, 2016;Bagatini et al, 2017); entre solar e outras fontes (Beluco et al, 2008;Bagatini et al, 2017;Santos et al, 2020;Campos et al, 2020;Weschenfelder et al, 2020;Carpio, 2021;Nascimento et al, 2022).…”